NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f4ceef57cc83069949f491cb97cfac515d04d11c239114e9db5ff7a6cf9d56d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 51c | 2,107$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082.04 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under | 59c | 2,052$1,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,210.91 | 1,271 | 38.3%487 W · 784 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 48c | 1,931$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.93 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 1,277$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620.43 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…3234backed Under | 56c | 991.7$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555.35 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Over | 54c | 941.47$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.38 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da9…13ecbacked Over | 49c | 596.62$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 544.95$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 44c | 337.57$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.04 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 51c | 292.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.42 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3e…6d3fbacked Over | 47c | 218.86$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.44 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 44c | 202.14$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.07 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 53c | 190.47$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.52 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 51c | 137.25$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…21cdbacked Over | 49c | 136.4$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.9 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f32…ab75backed Over | 48c | 121.1$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.97 | 81 | 56.8%46 W · 35 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 52c | 105.62$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.22 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Over | 56c | 102.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 45c | 60.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.92 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Over | 50c | 53.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…885abacked Over | 47c | 51.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 34c | 44.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 44c | 44.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc670…8cf8backed Over | 47c | 42.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dd…76e9backed Over | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 54c | 30.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 55c | 27.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…7006backed Over | 44c | 23.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Under | 55c | 19.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -9.8wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -34%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd3da…c91fbacked Over | 53c | 19.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.6wins | +0.30per pick | 53cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd44c…3affbacked Under | 55c | 18.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 250.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.