NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae59dfc86a244d4c385aade81a060987039b7c852aaf5a4da9428b48c5b8af84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cavaliersof Cavaliers, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Cavaliers | 43c | 86,329$37,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,207.77 | 662 | 48.5%321 W · 341 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Wizards | 57c | 85,456$48,710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48,710 | 365 | 49.6%181 W · 184 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Cavaliers | 45c | 8,686$3,867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,819.34 | 208 | 43.8%91 W · 117 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Wizards | 0c | 4,788$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 73 | 16.4%12 W · 61 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +1,317.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 56c | 4,319$2,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,402.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Wizards | 55c | 3,670$2,018 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,018.41 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Cavaliers | 59c | 1,709$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.17 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Wizards | 55c | 1,562$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.85 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041b…d3ebbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 1,117$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.58 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cavaliers | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Wizards | 57c | 999.99$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.99 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Cavaliers | 45c | 638.22$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.02 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Wizards | 46c | 623.71$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.91 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cavaliers | 55c | 588.03$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.61 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Wizards | 55c | 409.09$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Wizards | 55c | 400$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Wizards | 37c | 380.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.08 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4953…48c2backed Cavaliers | 73c | 327.85$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.07 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Cavaliers | 45c | 319.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.51 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 311.94$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.68 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Wizards | 6c | 280.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Wizards | 12c | 256$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Wizards | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Wizards | 46c | 227.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.93 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Cavaliers | 43c | 202.2$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.25 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cavaliers | 67c | 168.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.77 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Cavaliers | 52c | 157.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.7 | 898 | 50.9%457 W · 441 L | +19.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Wizards | 55c | 156.02$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.81 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…ada1backed Wizards | 57c | 131.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Wizards | 57c | 125.17$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Cavaliers | 55c | 104.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6e…21cdbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Wizards | 57c | 97.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c47…7a9fbacked Cavaliers | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.12 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Cavaliers | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.05 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Wizards | 57c | 94.02$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Wizards | 57c | 90.74$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Wizards | 55c | 89.51$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Wizards | 57c | 83.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Wizards | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 404 | 40.1%162 W · 242 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe711…3dd2backed Wizards | 25c | 76.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Cavaliers | 46c | 74.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.43 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cavaliers | 43c | 67.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 616 | 38.5%237 W · 379 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Wizards | 25c | 65.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 804 | 40.3%324 W · 480 L | +27.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Cavaliers | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Wizards | 38c | 63.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Wizards | 53c | 58.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Wizards | 56c | 57.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Cavaliers | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Cavaliers | 45c | 53.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cavaliers | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Cavaliers | 46c | 49.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 319 | 53%169 W · 150 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd155…8250backed Cavaliers | 43c | 43.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 488 | 52%254 W · 234 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…ec56backed Cavaliers | 43c | 41.68$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 252 | 45.2%114 W · 138 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b6…4e91backed Cavaliers | 45c | 38.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 363 | 50.1%182 W · 181 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cavaliers | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Wizards | 48c | 33.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 528 | 61.9%327 W · 201 L | +32.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…e568backed Wizards | 54c | 32.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Wizards | 54c | 29.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc82b…4a75backed Cavaliers | 45c | 25.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Cavaliers | 67c | 24.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 331 | 59.2%196 W · 135 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Wizards | 52c | 24.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 360 | 51.7%186 W · 174 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Wizards | 57c | 21.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Wizards | 58c | 20.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Cavaliers won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-16.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-17.5)Wizards won
- Wizards vs. CavaliersCavaliers won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 234.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 235.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 237.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 238.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 239.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 241.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Cavaliers: O/U 250.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.