Tennis · resolved market
ATP Kitzbuhel – Bublik vs. Cazaux
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x061ce0824050872a49a79925faffc9d5e1edc870e7f719ed719e7d473fd971e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bublikof Bublik, Cazaux
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa5f…005fbacked Bublik | 75c | 27,111$20,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,838.87 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Cazaux | 27c | 13,635$3,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,621.11 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cazaux | 24c | 12,090$2,946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,946.04 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b2…9f35backed Bublik | 79c | 5,869$4,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,212.78 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Cazaux | 24c | 4,126$974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.34 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | +13.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Cazaux | 25c | 3,971$1,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.04 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Cazaux | 10c | 2,621$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.21 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…a496backed Cazaux | 26c | 1,900$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b7…6d97backed Cazaux | 4c | 1,895$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Cazaux | 25c | 1,855$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.31 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed Cazaux | 26c | 1,520$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.7 | 579 | 39.7%230 W · 349 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Cazaux | 24c | 1,500$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 430 | 42.8%184 W · 246 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Bublik | 77c | 1,500$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.96 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cazaux | 26c | 1,398$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf747…f687backed Bublik | 77c | 1,231$948 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.14 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…6128backed Cazaux | 27c | 1,207$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.88 | 108 | 39.8%43 W · 65 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Bublik | 74c | 1,200$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bublik | 76c | 1,141$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.41 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0447…60abbacked Bublik | 75c | 1,021$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.31 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked Bublik | 78c | 995.72$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.47 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cazaux | 20c | 995$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Cazaux | 23c | 980.86$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.99 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Cazaux | 32c | 700$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…64c9backed Bublik | 74c | 675.99$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.76 | 476 | 39.1%186 W · 290 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Cazaux | 24c | 645.95$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.03 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Cazaux | 20c | 625$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…f48dbacked Bublik | 77c | 569.85$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.02 | 320 | 50%160 W · 160 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f1…c78bbacked Bublik | 78c | 517.95$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…099abacked Cazaux | 24c | 500$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…dde4backed Cazaux | 26c | 485.92$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.34 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Cazaux | 22c | 479.51$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cazaux | 35c | 478$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.44 | 439 | 48.5%213 W · 226 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…7260backed Bublik | 80c | 442.01$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.42per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a8…8466backed Bublik | 76c | 416.67$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cazaux | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c9a…12debacked Cazaux | 26c | 402.86$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed Cazaux | 24c | 280.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.38 | 220 | 37.7%83 W · 137 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Bublik | 75c | 213.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Cazaux | 24c | 200$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e9…5105backed Cazaux | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Bublik | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +12.2wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +399.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…1ca9backed Bublik | 70c | 195.61$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.68 | 153 | 63.4%97 W · 56 L | +11.5wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x821d…0a01backed Bublik | 73c | 191.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.72 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Cazaux | 29c | 177.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.77 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…2784backed Bublik | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 321 | 61.7%198 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Cazaux | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Bublik | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Bublik | 76c | 119.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ca…198bbacked Bublik | 76c | 115$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Cazaux | 29c | 114.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.11 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…1e51backed Bublik | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Cazaux | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Bublik | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Cazaux | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe64f…5976backed Cazaux | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 149 | 40.9%61 W · 88 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Cazaux | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Cazaux | 21c | 76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3635…17c8backed Cazaux | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Bublik | 78c | 55.33$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Bublik | 75c | 35.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 102 | 66.7%68 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Bublik | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +38%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5a…725ebacked Bublik | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +3.6wins | +0.17per pick | 59cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Bublik | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 167 | 61.1%102 W · 65 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Bublik | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.