Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x068ebdb59d61bc0511fd9b1fc50e8b9f7dc79b13c946e83c9b491c63f90990fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed No | 37c | 1,360$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.26 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 32c | 886.72$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 60c | 808.72$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.23 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 31c | 483.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.3 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 29c | 461.55$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.28 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 33c | 446.21$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.03 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 4c | 405.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 9c | 278.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 11c | 277.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 243.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 19c | 223.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 63c | 222.77$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.22 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 67c | 217.8$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.77 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 28c | 201.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 192.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.48 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 71c | 160$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…d08cbacked Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 18c | 157.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed No | 43c | 154.86$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 20c | 121.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 46c | 108.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 32c | 108.12$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…04c2backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…8770backed No | 33c | 91.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 37c | 88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 72c | 86.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 71c | 84.51$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 31c | 83.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead3…b125backed Yes | 62c | 80.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…6946backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 75 | 56%42 W · 33 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f2…ef25backed Yes | 62c | 79.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…f6e8backed Yes | 65c | 78.35$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x605e…3aacbacked Yes | 61c | 76.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 52c | 75.51$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 64c | 67.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 45c | 59.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 68c | 59.84$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 26c | 56.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3c…ca16backed Yes | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 149 | 34.2%51 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 55c | 52.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 37c | 51.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked Yes | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | -7.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f6…5d76backed Yes | 75c | 45.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 31c | 41.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9518…9e0cbacked Yes | 59c | 39.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -7.5wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd32…78dabacked Yes | 54c | 37.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 37cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 63c | 35.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 31c | 33.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c8…f565backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 60c | 30.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed Yes | 66c | 28.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…c908backed Yes | 65c | 27.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 66c | 25.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3382…a6e4backed Yes | 67c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 21.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…2896backed Yes | 62c | 20.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb1…6644backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 54c | 19.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 55c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f2…9bf5backed Yes | 57c | 19.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 18.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5174…8a39backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a2…e032backed Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on July 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 31°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 34°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on July 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.