NBA · resolved market
Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0694e663946ff5735e7f2acf89523b7a7104687d49fe2afe3f8ee066b8f7d3d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $120,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,282
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $120,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 45c | 105,250$47,410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,410 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Over | 55c | 90,717$49,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40,822.68 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 8,420$4,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,812.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 54c | 4,995$2,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,297.7 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 55c | 4,069$2,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,831.1 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 45c | 2,786$1,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,253.53 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 2,406$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 55c | 1,819$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.55 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Over | 55c | 896.01$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.2 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 45c | 636.98$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.21 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Over | 57c | 353.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.86 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 59c | 256.41$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.13 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under | 43c | 183.86$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.06 | 1,198 | 38.8%465 W · 733 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Over | 56c | 174$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.56 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 56c | 98.18$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Over | 56c | 86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.84 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa024…4929backed Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…cc70backed Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Over | 55c | 75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…ce61backed Under | 68c | 64.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 44c | 59.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06f4…758dbacked Over | 56c | 53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…a96dbacked Over | 55c | 49.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Over | 75c | 46.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…47edbacked Under | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Under | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 317 | 45.4%144 W · 173 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Under | 44c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9874…15d7backed Under | 44c | 34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Under | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3a…9bdbbacked Under | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Under | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab2c…0ab7backed Under | 44c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…41f0backed Under | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd925…3ab5backed Over | 56c | 21.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Over | 56c | 21.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 120 | 62.5%75 W · 45 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5this page
- Kings vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-15.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.