NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x379d73b3b02c2daf2c4bba03e60ec6a42910257f8a33f6f72b5ebd94ed6c30aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $169,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $170,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 46c | 144,875$67,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77,512.8 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Kings | 54c | 82,394$44,403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,402.88 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Kings | 53c | 60,000$31,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31,799.99 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 49c | 6,841$3,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,516.51 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 52c | 4,384$2,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,271.6 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…5af4backed Kings | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Kings | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,059.98 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Kings | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 46c | 1,433$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.38 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Kings | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Kings | 64c | 1,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.95 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Warriors | 47c | 675$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.5 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Kings | 53c | 651.34$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.21 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Kings | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Kings | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 569 | 45.3%258 W · 311 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Warriors | 46c | 500$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 753 | 47.5%358 W · 395 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Warriors | 47c | 456.77$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.09 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…73e9backed Kings | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 402 | 43.8%176 W · 226 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed Warriors | 47c | 383.21$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.11 | 192 | 42.7%82 W · 110 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…3438backed Kings | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…85a1backed Kings | 53c | 299.98$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.99 | 195 | 56.9%111 W · 84 L | +20.0wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Warriors | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Warriors | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea4…42ebbacked Kings | 80c | 200$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 46c | 199.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.32 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…95d8backed Kings | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 153 | 55.6%85 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9501…a052backed Kings | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Kings | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe500…4b37backed Warriors | 68c | 117.49$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.49 | 197 | 56.3%111 W · 86 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Kings | 53c | 116.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…2924backed Kings | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…39a7backed Warriors | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Warriors | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Kings | 47c | 99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.56 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Kings | 16c | 95.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Kings | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…fae9backed Warriors | 48c | 82.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 311 | 51.1%159 W · 152 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Kings | 52c | 82.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.15 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…075ebacked Kings | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Kings | 26c | 73.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 144 | 38.9%56 W · 88 L | +32.5wins | +0.23per pick | 16cpaid | +228.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Kings | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 377 | 55.7%210 W · 167 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Kings | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Warriors | 45c | 64.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d7…0b48backed Kings | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Kings | 52c | 52.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Warriors | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed Kings | 57c | 50.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Warriors | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Kings | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Warriors | 45c | 46.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 48c | 46.46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9229…830bbacked Kings | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked Kings | 53c | 45.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 324 | 50%162 W · 162 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Warriors | 48c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.23 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Warriors | 47c | 40.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.61 | 397 | 56.7%225 W · 172 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d5…0417backed Kings | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 340 | 50.3%171 W · 169 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a88…2bffbacked Warriors | 47c | 36$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf2…5803backed Kings | 54c | 35.59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…18b0backed Kings | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…eb18backed Warriors | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Warriors | 40c | 28.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Kings | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 317 | 45.4%144 W · 173 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd236…a65ebacked Kings | 54c | 20.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 522 | 46.6%243 W · 279 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-15.5)this page
- Kings vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.