NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x04de616b10bf187047337734d777519a055b5d43c031bed5f1f88c233ee89002
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdc…2454backed Warriors | 50c | 6,313$3,156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,156.42 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x06ab…d376backed Kings | 50c | 6,189$3,095 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,094.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 49c | 4,607$2,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,243.87 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…d171backed Warriors | 49c | 2,500$1,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Warriors | 51c | 2,119$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.31 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…5af4backed Warriors | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.09 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…bd7dbacked Warriors | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.18 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 51c | 1,771$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Warriors | 36c | 1,389$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.37 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 54c | 1,332$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.59 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 48c | 983.83$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.95 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Kings | 63c | 929.72$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Kings | 45c | 909.09$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.09 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…c3eabacked Warriors | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.09 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 46c | 741$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.86 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Warriors | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 492 | 46.3%228 W · 264 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 45c | 594.33$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.51 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Kings | 46c | 547.5$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.81 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings | 46c | 497.32$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.77 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 62c | 424.5$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.96 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 48c | 405.67$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.58 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcc…4324backed Kings | 48c | 400$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 528 | 44.7%236 W · 292 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Warriors | 53c | 287.6$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.24 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Warriors | 53c | 276.75$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.07 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…d91cbacked Kings | 50c | 275.84$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…1f12backed Warriors | 53c | 235.85$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.85 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240d…a928backed Kings | 51c | 196.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 164 | 40.9%67 W · 97 L | -13.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Warriors | 54c | 189.95$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.38 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Warriors | 55c | 140$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Kings | 51c | 122$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | +9.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Warriors | 55c | 120$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc63…f1c7backed Kings | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 506 | 53.2%269 W · 237 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Warriors | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Kings | 41c | 100$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Warriors | 40c | 98.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af7…ea7ebacked Warriors | 56c | 94.34$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 67 | 23.9%16 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Warriors | 61c | 88.95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 192 | 32.8%63 W · 129 L | -18.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Kings | 51c | 88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Warriors | 55c | 83$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Kings | 54c | 79.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Kings | 48c | 78.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Warriors | 55c | 76$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Warriors | 55c | 72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Warriors | 55c | 61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Kings | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors | 52c | 53.21$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.49 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed Warriors | 80c | 52.41$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 216 | 42.1%91 W · 125 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Kings | 58c | 52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Warriors | 57c | 46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f25…1e6ebacked Kings | 45c | 39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 51c | 36.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf26c…3443backed Kings | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Warriors | 52c | 35.04$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Warriors | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Kings | 45c | 33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Kings | 45c | 31.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Kings | 47c | 31.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Warriors | 63c | 31.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Kings | 45c | 31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Warriors | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Warriors | 34c | 29.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 306 | 16.7%51 W · 255 L | -36.5wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 55c | 28.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Kings | 46c | 28.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed Kings | 45c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf340…6224backed Kings | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1313…866abacked Kings | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb736…1946backed Kings | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x207b…df20backed Kings | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed Kings | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…642bbacked Kings | 65c | 22.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 174 | 66.1%115 W · 59 L | +13.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Kings | 50c | 20.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 238 | 45.4%108 W · 130 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)this page
- Kings vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-15.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.