NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee2e629fda27d84f1a0f4dec447827fc129a42c23f4d304b61d0d4f89b56f0b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,152
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,152 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead0…f3babacked Kings | 49c | 19,268$9,389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,389.15 | 1,124 | 48.6%546 W · 578 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Warriors | 51c | 8,810$4,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,326.16 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Warriors | 51c | 8,000$4,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,920 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 51c | 6,441$3,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,164.35 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Kings | 49c | 6,000$2,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,939.99 | 1,024 | 50.8%520 W · 504 L | +18.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Warriors | 52c | 3,846$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,845.89 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 47c | 2,329$1,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.66 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 53c | 2,296$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.31 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc946…1825backed Kings | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…f286backed Warriors | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…a250backed Warriors | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 344 | 47.4%163 W · 181 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Kings | 49c | 459.18$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 184 | 48.9%90 W · 94 L | -13.3wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Warriors | 52c | 411.54$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.54 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1a…d9abbacked Warriors | 52c | 307.69$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.69 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…db14backed Warriors | 51c | 294.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.12 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Kings | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Warriors | 49c | 122.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.82 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Warriors | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Kings | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090d…e0efbacked Kings | 51c | 98.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Warriors | 50c | 80.38$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.2 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Kings | 49c | 71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…152cbacked Kings | 51c | 61.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 484 | 51.2%248 W · 236 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…c2edbacked Kings | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 174 | 47.7%83 W · 91 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…d91fbacked Kings | 49c | 55.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 623 | 47.5%296 W · 327 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Kings | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Warriors | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Warriors | 35c | 48.81$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Kings | 44c | 46.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7f…8c81backed Kings | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Kings | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Warriors | 52c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Kings | 53c | 33.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 52c | 29.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Warriors | 43c | 28.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Kings | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x789b…4c08backed Kings | 50c | 23.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d20…6568backed Warriors | 51c | 21.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Warriors | 51c | 20.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532c…5e00backed Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x89a4…5f78backed Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbd…6ffebacked Kings | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…7fe3backed Kings | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | -12.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)this page
- Kings vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-15.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.