NBA · resolved market

Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeaa9b1d20b16e223aa6c56b80d52d8b521cdab74a6dc962abb2218cc4e5cf1c3

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $62,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,700 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over	50c	21,967$10,925 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11,041.7	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Under	51c	12,000$6,120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,120	172	50%86 W · 86 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	5,330$2,586 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,744.75	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Under	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,550	185	47%87 W · 98 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	49c	5,000$2,450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,550	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…32c2backed Under	51c	4,754$2,425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,424.54	415	53.3%221 W · 194 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under	47c	3,025$1,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,421.82	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Over	53c	3,016$1,598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,417.5	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Under	52c	2,707$1,408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,407.64	185	36.8%68 W · 117 L	-11.8wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over	49c	2,136$1,047 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,089.27	478	56.7%271 W · 207 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under	53c	2,016$1,068 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,068.37	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x478f…f5d9backed Under	52c	1,923$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	220	35.5%78 W · 142 L	-11.5wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2816…6ad7backed Under	52c	1,781$918 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$918.23	107	51.4%55 W · 52 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Under	52c	1,376$715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.33	101	38.6%39 W · 62 L	-6.6wins	-0.07per pick	45cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b85…e89abacked Under	52c	961.54$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	39	43.6%17 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…819ebacked Under	52c	961.54$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	142	54.9%78 W · 64 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	48c	810.24$389 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$421.32	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Under	51c	700$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357	910	50.9%463 W · 447 L	+11.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45c3…42f9backed Under	51c	686.27$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	168	52.4%88 W · 80 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa009…a6efbacked Under	51c	588.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	147	42.2%62 W · 85 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Under	51c	588.24$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	100	45%45 W · 55 L	-9.4wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-20%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd586…b5c5backed Over	49c	500$245 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$255	10	90%9 W · 1 L	+4.1wins	+0.41per pick	49cpaid	+82.7%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Under	51c	500$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	228	46.1%105 W · 123 L	-6.0wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Under	51c	400$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	402	43.8%176 W · 226 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6921…2345backed Under	51c	400$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.2	170	41.8%71 W · 99 L	-12.5wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under	30c	387.96$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.5	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8208…1742backed Over	68c	294.71$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.71	27	40.7%11 W · 16 L	-3.2wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over	48c	293.49$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.62	2,796	50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L	+27.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d78…7b8dbacked Under	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	77	54.5%42 W · 35 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64db…325bbacked Over	50c	200$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	1,259	48.7%613 W · 646 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd00e…fb86backed Under	52c	200$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-4.1wins	-0.19per pick	50cpaid	-44.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Under	51c	199.99$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.99	358	51.7%185 W · 173 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc29d…3352backed Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	159	59.1%94 W · 65 L	+4.5wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bdb…338dbacked Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.52per pick	52cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Under	51c	147.06$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	18	50%9 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1c3…7d73backed Under	52c	134.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	80	41.3%33 W · 47 L	-7.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1209…fa75backed Over	49c	109.94$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.07	69	43.5%30 W · 39 L	-5.1wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e51…9531backed Under	52c	105.77$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	367	51.5%189 W · 178 L	-1.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	187	42.8%80 W · 107 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	41cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under	52c	100$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	116	50.9%59 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38db…d245backed Under	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	100	58%58 W · 42 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x236d…5e45backed Under	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	84	58.3%49 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11e2…26ccbacked Over	49c	84.05$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.87	27	59.3%16 W · 11 L	+2.8wins	+0.10per pick	49cpaid	+27%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc82…6421backed Under	51c	80$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.8	118	47.5%56 W · 62 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0fd…5903backed Under	52c	76.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	106	46.2%49 W · 57 L	-12.5wins	-0.12per pick	58cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb0f6…a31cbacked Under	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	45	51.1%23 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Under	51c	58.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	175	27.4%48 W · 127 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab7…180ebacked Under	52c	57.69$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6417…e608backed Under	51c	49.02$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	64	54.7%35 W · 29 L	+3.1wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd6d…c504backed Under	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	88	54.5%48 W · 40 L	+5.4wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	51c	39.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x848f…612fbacked Under	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	61.5%48 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	65cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7eb3…0710backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	59cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x756d…04a9backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	43.8%32 W · 41 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Under	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac98…7281backed Over	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	421	43.7%184 W · 237 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2722…697abacked Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	44	65.9%29 W · 15 L	+4.9wins	+0.11per pick	55cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3df0…7eb8backed Under	52c	21.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	39	61.5%24 W · 15 L	+2.5wins	+0.06per pick	55cpaid	+11.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event