NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4717de82ad0d53911213add824f655ffaeb29db645caf111a8a1755781fadd45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Warriorsof Warriors, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Kings | 63c | 7,000$4,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,427.31 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings | 41c | 6,000$2,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,460 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Warriors | 59c | 6,000$3,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 57c | 5,896$3,351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,544.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Kings | 43c | 3,701$1,591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,591.36 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kings | 43c | 2,408$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,034.13 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Warriors | 45c | 2,350$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,297.37 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Warriors | 38c | 2,134$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,330.53 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Warriors | 54c | 1,426$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$656 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Warriors | 35c | 1,342$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.98 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Warriors | 35c | 835.84$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.28 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Kings | 72c | 797.22$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Warriors | 57c | 701$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.43 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Warriors | 38c | 600$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba0d…9a6ebacked Kings | 43c | 599.04$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.59 | 147 | 42.2%62 W · 85 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Warriors | 54c | 596.6$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.44 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Kings | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Warriors | 59c | 364.07$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.42 | 258 | 47.3%122 W · 136 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6921…2345backed Warriors | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -12.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 53c | 291.69$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.22 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Kings | 43c | 276.12$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.73 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed Warriors | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 509 | 54.8%279 W · 230 L | +14.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Kings | 41c | 252.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Warriors | 59c | 225.42$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Kings | 43c | 207.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Kings | 51c | 195.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked Kings | 55c | 180$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 135 | 43.7%59 W · 76 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Warriors | 58c | 135.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Kings | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b2…089abacked Kings | 43c | 111.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.08 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Kings | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…b479backed Kings | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 147 | 27.2%40 W · 107 L | -21.7wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Kings | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Warriors | 67c | 89.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Warriors | 41c | 88.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Warriors | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Kings | 45c | 85.31$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.2 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Warriors | 46c | 85.01$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.88 | 591 | 41.8%247 W · 344 L | -26.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Warriors | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Kings | 42c | 78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…570cbacked Kings | 55c | 71.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked Kings | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Warriors | 55c | 57.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea33…ae06backed Warriors | 59c | 55.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 117 | 59.8%70 W · 47 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Warriors | 55c | 49.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe97…89e1backed Kings | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Warriors | 58c | 45.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…2924backed Kings | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 56.3%99 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7676…ada4backed Kings | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Warriors | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Warriors | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Warriors | 59c | 27.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Warriors | 48c | 26.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Warriors | 48c | 26.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…f0cbbacked Warriors | 58c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…ebecbacked Kings | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-12.5)this page
- Kings vs. WarriorsWarriors won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 228.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 229.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 230.5Over won
- Kings vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5Over won
- Spread: Warriors (-13.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-14.5)Warriors won
- Spread: Warriors (-15.5)Warriors won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.