TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof PARIVISION, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$452,014
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$530,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $452,014 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Spirit59c36,372$21,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,896.1913155%72 W · 59 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cdb…4d30backed PARIVISION41c30,600$12,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,423.055558.2%32 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.13per pick45cpaid+22.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Team Spirit59c22,156$12,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,164.0315852.5%83 W · 75 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f76…3e05backed PARIVISION43c16,500$7,095 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,094.996750.7%34 W · 33 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac0d…b006backed PARIVISION36c16,396$5,898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,897.6610661.3%65 W · 41 L+10.4wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22a9…ef69backed Team Spirit61c11,820$7,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,619.01757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked PARIVISION41c9,978$4,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,059.771353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed PARIVISION6c8,082$489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.3780443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed PARIVISION48c7,666$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,675.4622848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed PARIVISION41c7,612$3,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,120.8227645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b5c…99e1backed Team Spirit58c7,365$4,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.722152.4%11 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x25ed…6ac6backed Team Spirit47c6,086$2,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,254.537855.1%43 W · 35 L+6.7wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed PARIVISION40c5,555$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,22216842.9%72 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked PARIVISION41c5,555$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,277.5534146.6%159 W · 182 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb569…5695backed Team Spirit64c5,066$3,242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,823.8619047.9%91 W · 99 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09df…5ca9backed PARIVISION43c5,000$2,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,136.744245.2%19 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb116…940abacked Team Spirit59c4,700$2,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9278950.6%45 W · 44 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked PARIVISION42c4,587$1,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,919.451457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick39cpaid+70.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Team Spirit46c4,537$2,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,437.5419246.4%89 W · 103 L-6.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed PARIVISION31c4,502$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.6845139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe612…abc9backed PARIVISION68c4,411$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.476237.1%23 W · 39 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick40cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51c7…98aabacked Team Spirit59c4,238$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.9729160.1%175 W · 116 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Spirit32c4,001$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,710.6833850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Team Spirit59c3,947$2,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,614.4819148.7%93 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1034…b26dbacked Team Spirit61c3,880$2,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,517.467146.5%33 W · 38 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x47bd…bc9dbacked Team Spirit40c3,744$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,244.4841055.6%228 W · 182 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-3.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked PARIVISION49c3,562$1,736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,735.592,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked PARIVISION48c3,557$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,702.061,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed PARIVISION54c3,422$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,86018452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc85…3532backed PARIVISION15c3,420$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.71631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick42cpaid+21.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6de…95e8backed PARIVISION44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3205750.9%29 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed PARIVISION65c2,997$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.8155751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7acb…8c1dbacked Team Spirit67c2,994$2,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$977.479661.5%59 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked PARIVISION42c2,976$1,256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,255.8711557.4%66 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x95b8…47c9backed PARIVISION71c2,808$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008245.1%37 W · 45 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb78f…3a77backed Team Spirit62c2,700$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,019.994264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b26…c9afbacked Team Spirit59c2,689$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.4114251.4%73 W · 69 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8245…4f87backed PARIVISION67c2,623$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,767.986261.3%38 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…51ebbacked PARIVISION41c2,562$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.94714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick42cpaid-77.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xae8d…210fbacked Team Spirit46c2,521$1,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,371.413655.6%20 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa925…e1c8backed Team Spirit57c2,448$1,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.573953.8%21 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed PARIVISION41c2,416$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.651136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-29.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1bc…bd81backed Team Spirit52c2,287$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,087.23757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked PARIVISION40c2,286$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.8385851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked PARIVISION40c2,222$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.82433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb875…68a8backed PARIVISION40c2,217$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.382839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8e42…3559backed PARIVISION60c2,139$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,276.29650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9adf…55e8backed PARIVISION41c2,007$823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.5719147.6%91 W · 100 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…c460backed PARIVISION41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8204252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cc1…fdc6backed PARIVISION42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.99250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ce3…3bc3backed Team Spirit66c1,929$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$658.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x33f1…f95fbacked Team Spirit64c1,884$1,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.682466.7%16 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed PARIVISION40c1,856$739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$739.44645.7%21 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab6…078ebacked Team Spirit57c1,754$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.3911955.5%66 W · 53 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed PARIVISION44c1,731$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.228341%116 W · 167 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed PARIVISION52c1,696$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$880.0353652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Team Spirit63c1,527$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.98666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+21.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked PARIVISION38c1,500$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.9939936.8%147 W · 252 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cad…eb66backed PARIVISION30c1,465$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.59750.5%49 W · 48 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde17…68d2backed Team Spirit46c1,447$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.1417950.3%90 W · 89 L+14.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed PARIVISION38c1,402$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.2289440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed PARIVISION41c1,400$574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57412351.2%63 W · 60 L-7.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d29…6da9backed Team Spirit59c1,255$737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.47757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked PARIVISION40c1,200$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.9919943.2%86 W · 113 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdabd…ed1cbacked Team Spirit42c1,100$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6381100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09fc…4cd4backed PARIVISION15c1,075$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.45100%0 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed PARIVISION43c1,070$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.4764744.4%287 W · 360 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed PARIVISION43c1,070$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46023529.4%69 W · 166 L-21.5wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x18a6…0b89backed PARIVISION52c1,057$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5511216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.3wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0e5e…67c5backed Team Spirit34c1,008$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.2714039.3%55 W · 85 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Team Spirit46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.1320642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8e…b232backed Team Spirit32c1,000$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6801181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick59cpaid+43.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x20a5…de1bbacked Team Spirit50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$500.445358.5%31 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25f4…20e0backed Team Spirit61c988.04$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.045642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x16ac…135cbacked PARIVISION53c939.99$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.59714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-41.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6027…b518backed Team Spirit48c932.76$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.93964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a37…869bbacked Team Spirit56c932.38$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.775261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77cf…4a81backed PARIVISION4c912.89$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.551233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c9…d567backed PARIVISION36c888.3$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.52520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-69.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3db3…932fbacked PARIVISION56c886.82$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50016149.7%80 W · 81 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b18…5055backed Team Spirit74c880.3$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.813100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+57.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd08b…daa9backed PARIVISION79c865.99$684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.86520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-67.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd397…5052backed Team Spirit60c833.33$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.3323465%152 W · 82 L-1.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6260…fccbbacked PARIVISION56c824.24$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.58378.1%3 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-73.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0801…35cbbacked Team Spirit60c758.93$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.572100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb53a…fcd3backed Team Spirit58c750$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53ab…65aabacked PARIVISION41c748.44$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.378146.9%38 W · 43 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Team Spirit57c747.61$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.5316665.7%109 W · 57 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed PARIVISION41c745.61$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.2280742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…1443backed Team Spirit59c736.19$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.84862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xae8f…e8b1backed PARIVISION71c735.09$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.825540%22 W · 33 L-5.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed PARIVISION48c725.61$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.1762650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1448…9b9cbacked Team Spirit54c720.29$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.6813262.9%83 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8052…1124backed Team Spirit33c700$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47117146.8%80 W · 91 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc36b…a540backed Team Spirit39c690.4$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.994438.6%17 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x935e…d6e4backed PARIVISION78c669.11$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.35850%4 W · 4 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-35.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04bd…39a0backed PARIVISION44c655.72$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2903554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x75f3…0e78backed PARIVISION42c646.97$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26941248.8%201 W · 211 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…1bb9backed PARIVISION42c614.07$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.5356848.8%277 W · 291 L-1.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7620…d9f0backed PARIVISION50c610.06$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.22728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-43.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.