CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG - Map 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0751496ce9eea82c67929066d24723c4680d89168884bf45e8696dadb0a3c9c7

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Heroicof Heroic, NRG
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: CS2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $52,540
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,717

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,540 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in CS2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8375…ba1dbacked Heroic	58c	3,456$2,017 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,438.81	68	48.5%33 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x21ec…5348backed NRG	51c	1,974$1,007 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,006.54	724	53.7%389 W · 335 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84c4…abaebacked Heroic	58c	1,744$1,014 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$730.31	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+72%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked NRG	37c	1,674$626 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$625.88	1,611	45.4%731 W · 880 L	+30.0wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb9b…6df8backed NRG	52c	1,500$777 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$777	558	45.7%255 W · 303 L	-11.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Heroic	62c	1,451$893 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$557.57	245	50.2%123 W · 122 L	+9.4wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed NRG	37c	1,355$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.64	334	52.1%174 W · 160 L	+10.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked NRG	13c	1,168$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.64	5,511	47%2,590 W · 2,921 L	+42.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e7…705bbacked Heroic	49c	1,149$565 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$584.86	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	46cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Heroic	49c	1,020$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520.41	817	51.7%422 W · 395 L	-6.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x930b…0223backed Heroic	59c	1,018$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.03	238	61.3%146 W · 92 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8aa0…1160backed Heroic	60c	1,000$600 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	126	51.6%65 W · 61 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	48cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec0e…672cbacked NRG	37c	959$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.96	477	38.4%183 W · 294 L	-26.7wins	-0.06per pick	44cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a73…a9c8backed NRG	47c	958.59$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.98	696	35.3%246 W · 450 L	-49.3wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed Heroic	49c	943$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.93	224	48.7%109 W · 115 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed NRG	29c	910.29$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.08	1,278	21.9%280 W · 998 L	-24.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked NRG	55c	839$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.23	449	57.5%258 W · 191 L	-19.7wins	-0.04per pick	62cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed NRG	31c	776.48$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.95	6,480	42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L	-79.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x858e…1c3bbacked NRG	24c	706.35$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.52	56	35.7%20 W · 36 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked NRG	22c	690.45$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.04	696	24%167 W · 529 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd92d…e560backed NRG	31c	600$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.75	586	51%299 W · 287 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22ae…af00backed Heroic	57c	500$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215	264	51.5%136 W · 128 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29b5…cc6cbacked Heroic	52c	500$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.39	5,050	55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L	+117.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic	62c	458.03$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$173.08	2,221	41.3%917 W · 1,304 L	-22.6wins	-0.01per pick	42cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Heroic	67c	447.98$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$147.98	21	66.7%14 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	62cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…ce53backed NRG	3c	435.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-4.5wins	-0.25per pick	42cpaid	-73.5%equal weight	38-0.10 edge/pick
0x300b…8e51backed NRG	27c	400$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	417	16.5%69 W · 348 L	-12.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-31.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa032…a8f4backed NRG	19c	369.24$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.12	21	52.4%11 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	-1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed NRG	40c	351$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.3	5,287	31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L	-383.3wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcccc…dbddbacked NRG	50c	315.28$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.64	171	48%82 W · 89 L	-5.5wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4605…5299backed NRG	35c	309.69$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.12	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-2.0wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee4b…44edbacked NRG	40c	300$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	52cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked NRG	16c	298.41$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.75	279	47.7%133 W · 146 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed NRG	35c	228.57$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	314	52.2%164 W · 150 L	-10.8wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50df…d1e7backed NRG	37c	219$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.03	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed NRG	5c	204$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.16	2,774	24.5%681 W · 2,093 L	-295.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Heroic	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	534	44.9%240 W · 294 L	+11.2wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3021…5133backed NRG	52c	178$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.56	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-5.7wins	-0.32per pick	43cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5b0c…d43abacked NRG	48c	176.72$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.52	464	47.6%221 W · 243 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49f5…4e04backed NRG	56c	174.44$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.59	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-2.9wins	-0.26per pick	53cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Heroic	65c	169$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.53	2,776	37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L	-140.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked NRG	54c	166.89$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.06	1,710	52.3%895 W · 815 L	-73.4wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a33…7909backed Heroic	60c	163.52$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.41	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-17%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked NRG	20c	157.37$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.19	7,925	50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L	+179.4wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Heroic	61c	155.7$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.41	4,038	48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L	-23.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7026…9ab1backed Heroic	68c	146.46$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.46	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27e…d69dbacked NRG	17c	145.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	+12.7wins	+0.11per pick	40cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked NRG	47c	145$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.89	1,040	44%458 W · 582 L	-22.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked NRG	41c	143.44$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.26	3,096	48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L	+135.0wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x423f…eedcbacked NRG	50c	130$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	406	55.7%226 W · 180 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Heroic	47c	123.45$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.43	185	36.2%67 W · 118 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e20…ac93backed NRG	24c	120.55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.55	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcab8…b955backed NRG	53c	120$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-3.8wins	-0.20per pick	41cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5f59…bd2dbacked Heroic	56c	119.43$67 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.43	46	60.9%28 W · 18 L	+4.6wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+18%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1b2c…5e10backed NRG	38c	118.42$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	334	56.6%189 W · 145 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	60cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b25…77a8backed Heroic	62c	116.58$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.8	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Heroic	53c	103.22$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.21	1,378	45.2%623 W · 755 L	+17.9wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…6c27backed Heroic	58c	100$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.59	44	50%22 W · 22 L	-5.0wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0386…2b1abacked NRG	16c	93.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	700	36.1%253 W · 447 L	+18.4wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97c7…37adbacked NRG	53c	93.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	667	53.1%354 W · 313 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d7…526dbacked NRG	47c	91.07$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	224	44.6%100 W · 124 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…ffa9backed NRG	38c	86.77$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.57	432	39.1%169 W · 263 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa717…3bbebacked Heroic	57c	85.77$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.88	384	52.1%200 W · 184 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9160…de3dbacked Heroic	65c	84.24$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.24	180	40.6%73 W · 107 L	-11.1wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-20%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac23…c1fcbacked NRG	52c	83.96$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	71	38%27 W · 44 L	-9.1wins	-0.13per pick	51cpaid	-26.3%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x055a…d83bbacked NRG	47c	80$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.6	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	48cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8ee1…377abacked NRG	38c	74.18$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.84	213	54.5%116 W · 97 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Heroic	44c	72.61$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.92	1,573	35.3%556 W · 1,017 L	+22.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed NRG	40c	72$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.62	463	44.5%206 W · 257 L	-14.8wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdab8…1bc7backed NRG	48c	70.41$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.8	108	41.7%45 W · 63 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5541…f1e3backed NRG	36c	66.67$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	191	50.8%97 W · 94 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Heroic	54c	63.26$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.85	1,676	51.1%857 W · 819 L	+21.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5454…ceadbacked NRG	40c	62.75$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.1	95	52.6%50 W · 45 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed NRG	35c	58.55$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	2,102	16.8%353 W · 1,749 L	-286.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked NRG	41c	57$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	77	49.4%38 W · 39 L	+5.4wins	+0.07per pick	42cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac9c…50d8backed NRG	35c	56.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	254	16.9%43 W · 211 L	-10.1wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed NRG	19c	56.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	193	42%81 W · 112 L	-12.1wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c77…a901backed NRG	55c	56$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	40cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4177…a2b4backed NRG	52c	48.08$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,248	41.3%516 W · 732 L	+5.1wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c57…bf46backed Heroic	54c	40.74$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.74	38	47.4%18 W · 20 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked NRG	42c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	807	41.3%333 W · 474 L	-10.9wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…deffbacked NRG	37c	32.43$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	131	42%55 W · 76 L	-5.8wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked NRG	52c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	601	47.4%285 W · 316 L	+9.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd344…1993backed Heroic	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	39	41%16 W · 23 L	-5.3wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7f65…d822backed Heroic	73c	20.55$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.55	94	43.6%41 W · 53 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1121…6604backed NRG	52c	20$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.8wins	-0.12per pick	53cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG - Map 1 Winnerthis page
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1Heroic won
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG - Map 2 WinnerHeroic won
Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5)Heroic won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NRG - Map 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

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