TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Argentina Open: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Mariano Navone

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Carabelliof Carabelli, Navone
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$258,219
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$295,337

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $258,219 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 142 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Navone43c38,795$16,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,610.913834.2%13 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Carabelli77c18,182$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,182.0127460.2%165 W · 109 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Navone27c18,101$4,907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9074744.7%21 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3e…bcf8backed Navone56c13,844$7,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,811.5276146.6%355 W · 406 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Navone57c11,249$6,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,411.5676140.6%309 W · 452 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Carabelli54c8,716$4,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,990.936127.9%17 W · 44 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e0b…9e5cbacked Carabelli43c8,243$3,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,703.8713934.5%48 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+14.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3257…2f3bbacked Carabelli69c7,500$5,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,34044360%266 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Carabelli71c6,769$4,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,975.052,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac0a…f89ebacked Navone57c5,976$3,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,435.627146.5%33 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Carabelli43c5,814$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,313.951,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4173…d3edbacked Carabelli46c5,042$2,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,730.1255646.4%258 W · 298 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Carabelli69c4,964$3,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.0680938.8%314 W · 495 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb615…5baebacked Carabelli42c4,757$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,758.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78e0…375bbacked Navone59c4,551$2,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,679.372055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Navone29c3,801$1,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.424,93441.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L-77.0wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa844…919bbacked Navone58c3,715$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,154.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Navone43c3,600$1,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5482339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8ba…bbb6backed Carabelli43c3,053$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.493647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0283…e7d3backed Carabelli79c2,863$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.3120257.4%116 W · 86 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23c8…f8bcbacked Carabelli44c2,589$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.066026.7%16 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Navone59c2,542$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50021147.9%101 W · 110 L-16.5wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-13.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Navone22c2,337$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.372,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Carabelli43c2,326$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.5823429.9%70 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Carabelli43c2,268$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2932259.1%13 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77f6…dbd1backed Carabelli43c1,884$806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,077.540748.9%199 W · 208 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe77a…ce3cbacked Navone9c1,787$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.75850%4 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Carabelli62c1,613$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.98053.8%43 W · 37 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb62f…6836backed Navone1c1,600$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.88530.6%26 W · 59 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-22.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Carabelli77c1,548$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.0333556.7%190 W · 145 L-27.7wins-0.08per pick65cpaid-15.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Carabelli57c1,496$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.1197046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Carabelli56c1,374$769 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.482,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Carabelli57c1,354$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.551,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d04…d4d9backed Navone30c1,349$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick37cpaid-72.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Navone57c1,193$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6801,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Carabelli43c1,161$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.311,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Carabelli79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2109567.4%64 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5061…1b03backed Carabelli42c988.5$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.339452.1%49 W · 45 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc398…f446backed Carabelli44c843.18$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.1896035.4%340 W · 620 L-40.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Carabelli43c833.26$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.2698240.1%394 W · 588 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Carabelli53c781$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.074,42651.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L+136.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Carabelli60c765$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.5481349.1%399 W · 414 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Navone28c729.95$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.754250%21 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce3…9d85backed Carabelli43c663.02$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.925133.3%17 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb315…d6c9backed Navone18c660.84$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12015324.8%38 W · 115 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Navone3c649$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.932,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16c…9d62backed Navone45c642.63$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.835248.6%171 W · 181 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Carabelli79c590$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.965157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddc…83b9backed Navone59c539$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.0112951.9%67 W · 62 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39cb…46e8backed Navone57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009453.2%50 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x341b…4a23backed Navone2c523.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.451020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedff…bf60backed Navone58c508.62$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29520%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x55ec…b81ebacked Carabelli54c500$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.296259.7%37 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f0f…a571backed Carabelli42c476.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1937339.1%146 W · 227 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x579b…4a2bbacked Carabelli43c465.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.12650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9086…4d46backed Carabelli44c454.55$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.551,84148.5%892 W · 949 L-32.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x480e…71e9backed Carabelli58c420$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.813560.7%82 W · 53 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Carabelli49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.1665651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Carabelli44c400$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22418636%67 W · 119 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed Carabelli79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8415356.2%86 W · 67 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ed9…9949backed Carabelli44c363.64$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.6446553.8%250 W · 215 L-1.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed Navone58c350$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20349632.3%160 W · 336 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ad1…2030backed Navone58c344.83$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed Carabelli43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17123454.7%128 W · 106 L+10.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1fd…abf9backed Carabelli75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.578762.1%54 W · 33 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Navone4c300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.154599.6%44 W · 415 L+1.9wins0.00per pick9cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b5…60d5backed Navone9c262.26$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Navone57c238.09$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2842046.9%197 W · 223 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd120…19fcbacked Carabelli42c237.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.5713652.9%72 W · 64 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61b…e7babacked Carabelli43c232.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.74967.3%33 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3302…5397backed Navone58c226.34$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.044158.5%24 W · 17 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b55…d74bbacked Carabelli43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11428747.7%137 W · 150 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Navone59c189.83$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121,92355.4%1,066 W · 857 L-44.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x588b…8593backed Carabelli55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.821,10743.5%481 W · 626 L-3.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f97…a9b3backed Navone9c177.78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1626227.9%73 W · 189 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Navone19c176.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.3461953.3%330 W · 289 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Navone58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10023353.2%124 W · 109 L+0.6wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2a…bc9bbacked Navone58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004346.5%20 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-24.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Carabelli42c168$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.441,41441.1%581 W · 833 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Navone27c163.42$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6933326.4%88 W · 245 L-14.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Carabelli59c156$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9669249.6%343 W · 349 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a52…06cbbacked Carabelli44c155.16$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.8917056.5%96 W · 74 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf60d…761abacked Navone59c150$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.52661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Carabelli42c150$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872650%13 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Carabelli64c132.12$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.8749143%211 W · 280 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2608…34c1backed Carabelli44c131.82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.821250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f8f…8ed0backed Carabelli77c129.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.874736.2%17 W · 30 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-26.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x31d7…42c1backed Navone26c124.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.323435.3%12 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75dc…4f82backed Navone26c124.27$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3123653.4%126 W · 110 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c60…2227backed Carabelli43c120$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.410532.4%34 W · 71 L-10.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-29.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Navone25c119.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.733,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x70b2…1950backed Navone58c118.97$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693775.7%28 W · 9 L+8.4wins+0.23per pick53cpaid+41.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x2586…fd97backed Navone58c118.95$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.99540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b97…64eebacked Carabelli44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.644269%29 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Navone57c113$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.787,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b03…71babacked Carabelli44c102.27$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.2728552.3%149 W · 136 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Carabelli43c100$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f6d…bfc5backed Carabelli49c95.92$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.9231153.1%165 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Navone56c90$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.054035%14 W · 26 L-3.9wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Navone59c89.3$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.691,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.