TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Spread: Liverpool FC (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liverpool FCof Liverpool FC, Barnsley FC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,118
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,425

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,118 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7685…d406backed Barnsley FC0c15,015$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.3wins-0.33per pick48cpaid-67.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcfbb…55b0backed Liverpool FC66c9,276$6,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,164.991172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick64cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Barnsley FC43c8,227$3,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,571.26,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x78ad…45ccbacked Barnsley FC40c6,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,399.9910962.4%68 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick62cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Barnsley FC50c4,626$2,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,332.992,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Liverpool FC50c3,992$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,993.9225752.1%134 W · 123 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Liverpool FC50c2,530$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,258.951,00646.6%469 W · 537 L-20.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Barnsley FC43c2,353$1,015 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,014.649733%32 W · 65 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0364…f19bbacked Barnsley FC34c2,346$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.51825%2 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-49.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Liverpool FC4c2,343$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,241.344,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Liverpool FC50c2,100$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0506240.3%25 W · 37 L-5.1wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0775…eca8backed Liverpool FC50c1,570$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.5917428.2%49 W · 125 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Barnsley FC50c1,508$752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.581,27250.4%641 W · 631 L-53.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Liverpool FC61c1,441$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.549254.9%270 W · 222 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf395…8e3cbacked Liverpool FC58c1,420$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.327343.8%32 W · 41 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd94…6b1ebacked Liverpool FC54c988.35$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.744526.7%12 W · 33 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Liverpool FC51c775.59$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.159551.6%49 W · 46 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Barnsley FC44c713.11$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.773240.6%13 W · 19 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd544…4d5ebacked Liverpool FC77c517.99$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.992920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6835…1976backed Barnsley FC43c500$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.4451847.3%245 W · 273 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Barnsley FC47c430.22$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.1774156.8%421 W · 320 L+46.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9264…bca3backed Liverpool FC51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.2611143.2%48 W · 63 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Liverpool FC49c396.4$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.749949.5%49 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x419b…6ea1backed Liverpool FC58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.8310343.7%45 W · 58 L-8.8wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-18.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa42b…45d2backed Liverpool FC49c328$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.515955.3%88 W · 71 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed Barnsley FC47c316.34$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.353148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03ee…f7a7backed Barnsley FC39c305.1$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.742650%13 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Liverpool FC64c304.22$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.981450%7 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x985d…e14fbacked Barnsley FC42c302.82$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.722846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x227c…ee3fbacked Liverpool FC53c300$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14111047.3%52 W · 58 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Barnsley FC43c284.96$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.489346.2%43 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-11.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa47f…dfb1backed Liverpool FC46c259.34$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.345335.8%19 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+59.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4b27…a815backed Liverpool FC60c249.63$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.633100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+78.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06a9…1a49backed Liverpool FC64c248.9$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.937840.5%153 W · 225 L-15.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcaa2…6b1abacked Barnsley FC52c240.85$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa485…92a5backed Liverpool FC65c214.48$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.481369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a59…eb2ebacked Barnsley FC50c213.72$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8636956.9%210 W · 159 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd079…8db3backed Barnsley FC51c210$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.137557.3%215 W · 160 L+21.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2623…e65abacked Liverpool FC49c204.37$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.371435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Liverpool FC61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7827752%144 W · 133 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30ec…c276backed Liverpool FC48c199.98$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.991850%9 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Barnsley FC49c199.97$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.9829343.7%128 W · 165 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec5b…aff2backed Liverpool FC64c188.61$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.71546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa01…f0a7backed Liverpool FC63c185.01$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4523353.6%125 W · 108 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Liverpool FC58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.4130645.8%140 W · 166 L-11.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xadd4…b42bbacked Liverpool FC60c166.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.754647.8%22 W · 24 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fb9…1591backed Barnsley FC41c159.76$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2911255.4%62 W · 50 L+6.1wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x09ae…b883backed Liverpool FC59c158.68$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.061963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+30.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x802f…e008backed Liverpool FC64c156.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.3315560%93 W · 62 L-10.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-10.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fdf…0726backed Liverpool FC67c147.51$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.651963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Barnsley FC42c146.26$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4317053.5%91 W · 79 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe21a…88edbacked Liverpool FC52c144.1$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.171376.9%10 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick60cpaid+44.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1748…a816backed Liverpool FC49c139.94$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.371973.7%14 W · 5 L+4.4wins+0.23per pick51cpaid+46.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x901f…b8b0backed Liverpool FC51c133.33$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.334047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a56…387cbacked Liverpool FC61c129.9$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8929041.7%121 W · 169 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Liverpool FC56c125.14$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.1430059.7%179 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd571…d24abacked Barnsley FC41c123.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503718.9%7 W · 30 L-7.2wins-0.20per pick38cpaid-47.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xaab6…607ebacked Barnsley FC48c120.87$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2639651.5%204 W · 192 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a61…588bbacked Liverpool FC58c120$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$502665.4%17 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+51.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2c97…c20bbacked Liverpool FC51c117.65$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.6531746.1%146 W · 171 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb12e…3689backed Barnsley FC51c116.57$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b1…242fbacked Liverpool FC56c116.31$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.2316233.3%54 W · 108 L-14.8wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdb5f…4884backed Barnsley FC51c110.76$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.822343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb269…6adebacked Liverpool FC50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509436.2%34 W · 60 L-7.4wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Liverpool FC67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3329158.4%170 W · 121 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Liverpool FC49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5124340.7%99 W · 144 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Barnsley FC46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4611443.9%50 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Barnsley FC46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4629751.9%154 W · 143 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x518b…cf8abacked Liverpool FC49c99.93$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.967945.6%36 W · 43 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Liverpool FC62c97.6$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.0915049.3%74 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Liverpool FC53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.3435134.8%122 W · 229 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e63…2d79backed Liverpool FC35c85.71$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.712958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b2d…379dbacked Liverpool FC64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.136437.5%24 W · 40 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xca39…4ed7backed Liverpool FC64c78.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.131154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick63cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9d73…be4fbacked Liverpool FC65c77.37$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3722244.1%98 W · 124 L+19.0wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+36.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbd42…3dd1backed Barnsley FC40c76$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.59250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Liverpool FC60c75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3021056.7%119 W · 91 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee5…96c2backed Barnsley FC51c75$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2532755.7%182 W · 145 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Liverpool FC60c72.87$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.857744.4%256 W · 321 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa23f…a64ebacked Liverpool FC60c71.83$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.7313954%75 W · 64 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…d3d6backed Barnsley FC44c69.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.279137.4%34 W · 57 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x58c5…deeebacked Barnsley FC35c67.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6330%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x10a4…323cbacked Liverpool FC53c66.42$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f9…c119backed Barnsley FC40c65.38$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Barnsley FC51c64.07$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6835157.8%203 W · 148 L+18.1wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31ce…88cdbacked Barnsley FC50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3033156.8%188 W · 143 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Liverpool FC50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3029259.2%173 W · 119 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Liverpool FC50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Barnsley FC42c59.43$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9233753.1%179 W · 158 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a32…0188backed Liverpool FC51c57.14$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289756.7%55 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda50…2a41backed Barnsley FC49c57.14$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284634.8%16 W · 30 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x27b1…ed2bbacked Barnsley FC47c56.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.493652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49ed…a2fbbacked Barnsley FC38c53.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3313939.6%55 W · 84 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Liverpool FC55c52.12$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.271,28348%616 W · 667 L-5.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Liverpool FC60c51.9$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7638358.2%223 W · 160 L+24.7wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x70de…a1f3backed Barnsley FC54c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8747…8b5dbacked Barnsley FC52c48.19$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0685…2b0cbacked Liverpool FC37c47.99$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.182825%7 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-45.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Liverpool FC54c46.3$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.355654.9%305 W · 251 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eae…a25fbacked Barnsley FC51c45.1$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2336036.1%130 W · 230 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.