AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x088ee3251a1a2513b105a463c84d0834028012689c80b9c76f44277a737a4894
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,071
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,071 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1fd…b42cbacked Yes | 66c | 860.12$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.64 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 7c | 606.13$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 51c | 315.79$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.96 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 21c | 287.42$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.55 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 46c | 254.84$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc81c…e454backed No | 43c | 233.49$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe172…248abacked Yes | 27c | 226.53$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.03 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 18c | 166.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.66 | 44 | 15.9%7 W · 37 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8aa…007cbacked Yes | 67c | 149.7$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +252.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 148.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 179 | 24%43 W · 136 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd26e…569cbacked Yes | 70c | 142.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 26c | 134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 12c | 130.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 20c | 115.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…7dd4backed No | 47c | 106.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 21c | 101.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 63c | 85$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 42c | 73.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.91 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e26…3edfbacked No | 14c | 73.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…d271backed Yes | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 23c | 61.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 898 | 17%153 W · 745 L | -146.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed No | 21c | 51.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 70c | 51.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 30c | 51.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 45.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 734 | 35.6%261 W · 473 L | -58.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff9…0141backed Yes | 30c | 39.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 76c | 39.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 30c | 38.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 45c | 34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 42c | 32.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 63c | 28.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b93…cdecbacked Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?this page
- Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May?No won
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?No won
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May?No won
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.