AI · resolved market
Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x335d0e4362159c3a1b8af5d440d7eba45848d9eb6a1441e0af443b4dfefc45e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,508
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,508 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 4c | 6,057$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.47 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fd…b42cbacked Yes | 42c | 1,566$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.97 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 1,318$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.09 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed No | 59c | 847.46$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.46 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 6c | 700$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 20c | 424.15$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked No | 61c | 381.72$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.74 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 315.78$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.71 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed No | 59c | 304.98$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.44 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 61c | 255.27$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.91 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed No | 69c | 210.3$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -54%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x463c…6347backed Yes | 24c | 198.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed Yes | 8c | 194.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x846a…35afbacked No | 59c | 190.75$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf63…8d1cbacked Yes | 48c | 183.67$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d0…f642backed Yes | 7c | 167$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0583…7dd4backed Yes | 30c | 164.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 12c | 155$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed No | 51c | 154.04$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 141.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 71c | 138.51$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd26e…569cbacked Yes | 67c | 135$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0450backed No | 62c | 130$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed No | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.1 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bdd…5fb3backed Yes | 47c | 99.31$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 17c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed No | 66c | 86.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +12.0wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 26c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 56c | 82.55$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 67c | 68.38$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 67.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27d9…3b92backed No | 79c | 63.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 76c | 61.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 32c | 50.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 43.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 75c | 40.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 76c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…bda8backed No | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked No | 70c | 33.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e3bcbacked Yes | 75c | 33.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 61c | 33.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 67 | 83.6%56 W · 11 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6714…fad2backed No | 57c | 27.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 51c | 25.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 70c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…4a56backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…6262backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude go down 12+ times in May?this page
- Will Claude go down 0-2 times in May?No won
- Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May?No won
- Will Claude go down 6-8 times in May?No won
- Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.