NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x098c6f3a83ef1aeebe10ba1dc888ca3a49b7fca69b6a50678787ecfeca5924f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 54c | 2,595$1,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.32 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 47c | 2,036$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.04 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…2a1bbacked Over | 46c | 1,698$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.83 | 173 | 49.7%86 W · 87 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 45c | 1,118$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.58 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 55c | 955.67$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.08 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 55c | 838$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.9 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 54c | 741.75$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.55 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 629.86$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 57c | 522$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.54 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 43c | 330$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.1 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 252.75$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.48 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce39…04d6backed Over | 46c | 213.9$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.51 | 378 | 42.9%162 W · 216 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f43…c0c2backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 56c | 170.32$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.38 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 43c | 165$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.05 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…8510backed Under | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 44c | 135.9$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 45c | 113.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 46c | 113.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under | 55c | 103$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 45c | 92.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.92 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 46c | 90.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.91 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a25…bb6bbacked Over | 43c | 82.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 340 | 47.1%160 W · 180 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 43c | 82.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 46c | 78.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed Over | 50c | 73.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.93 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 46c | 65.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 46c | 63.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…17b3backed Under | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3750…baa0backed Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 326 | 54.3%177 W · 149 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7430…3af2backed Under | 54c | 31.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 261 | 49.4%129 W · 132 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 57c | 31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 43c | 27.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 525 | 52%273 W · 252 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cc…3132backed Under | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 112 | 29.5%33 W · 79 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 60c | 19.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Cody Williams: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Cody Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5Over won
- Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.