NBA · resolved market
Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x742e9519c8bc975083db5c66f960f3f5d3143b3ad1160d540dd53d2daecfb039
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,116
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,116 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 43c | 3,588$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Under | 56c | 2,531$1,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,417.25 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…cb68backed Over | 43c | 745.11$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.71 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 57c | 739.85$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.71 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Over | 76c | 713.26$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.44 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 638.71$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.29 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.55 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Under | 59c | 450.85$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266 | 476 | 51.7%246 W · 230 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7096…7f78backed Under | 57c | 384.56$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.2 | 653 | 49.9%326 W · 327 L | +20.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 58c | 245.95$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.46 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Under | 52c | 192.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 48c | 162.88$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 152$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.64 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…8683backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under | 58c | 104.5$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e01…7ef0backed Over | 43c | 89.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.9 | 203 | 50.2%102 W · 101 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c4…d390backed Under | 60c | 81.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 207 | 62.3%129 W · 78 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 41c | 68.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 58c | 67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 58c | 65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 59c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 693 | 37.8%262 W · 431 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…7e65backed Under | 56c | 43.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 291 | 49.5%144 W · 147 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under | 57c | 41.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 786 | 48.7%383 W · 403 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ca…0022backed Over | 44c | 41.47$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Over | 44c | 36.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 65c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 58c | 31.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5c…ab22backed Over | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Over | 42c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Under | 58c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 161 | 50.9%82 W · 79 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…0d39backed Under | 58c | 23.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1a…8984backed Over | 47c | 21.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…e06abacked Under | 60c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8458…aa75backed Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 234.5this page
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5)Timberwolves won
- Ace Bailey: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Ace Bailey: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Cody Williams: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Cody Williams: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jaden McDaniels: Points O/U 16.5Yes won
- Jazz vs. TimberwolvesTimberwolves won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 230.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 231.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 232.5Over won
- Jazz vs. Timberwolves: O/U 233.5Over won
- Naz Reid: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Naz Reid: Points O/U 15.5No won
- Naz Reid: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-11.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)Timberwolves won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-13.5)Timberwolves won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.