MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09d7e5cfa91ee743d156ef6ead6845832bcd57e865880ec115db647141ec258d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 1,683$1,195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.15 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 58c | 969.66$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.87 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 751.75$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.37 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…81f8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 73c | 616.33$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.33 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 517.23$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 19c | 501.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.51 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 500$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 442$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.18 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 379.34$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 349.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.48 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…e301backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 277.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.3 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 183.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.17 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 166.85$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.39 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 159.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Milwaukee Brewers | 46c | 141.21$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.87 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 39c | 138.03$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.78 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 135.51$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 133.82$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.88 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 77c | 131.96$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 129.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 100.87$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.17 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 34c | 98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 1,013 | 50.3%510 W · 503 L | +51.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 85.38$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 84.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 84.16$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8543…ff1bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 84.15$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 79c | 74.01$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 64.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 57.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 4,477 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L | -47.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 52.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…3bc8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 50.76$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…2bc3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 38.33$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 541 | 46.8%253 W · 288 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 33.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 29.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 72c | 21.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 19.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 18.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 653 | 59.6%389 W · 264 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 71c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 66c | 15.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.