MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4477d245957b4f3cb4d161eb3a85b7103673a2353cb35fc6a09f95f184eab4c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 37c | 1,207$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.77 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -13.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 58c | 1,191$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.27 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 788.8$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.18 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 63c | 786.56$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 555.79$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.48 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 550.02$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Over | 49c | 471$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.79 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 39c | 425.72$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.03 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 51c | 417.67$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.45 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 60c | 332$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.8 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 28c | 325.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 40c | 220.12$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.05 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 61c | 203.28$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.28 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 195.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 60c | 172.31$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under | 61c | 170$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…707fbacked Over | 41c | 165$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 38c | 138.04$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 132.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.25 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 68c | 104$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.52 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 28c | 103.41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 55c | 102$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 61c | 98.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 61c | 97.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 40c | 90$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 61c | 73.81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 59c | 61.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 63c | 58.78$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…2a2ebacked Under | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 33c | 44.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 40c | 43.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 60c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 27c | 37.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Over | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 309 | 28.5%88 W · 221 L | -46.7wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 26.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 72c | 25.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 71c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 65c | 19.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ff…ee99backed Under | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 76c | 16.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 68c | 15.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.