MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22989fcec523d44aeb6033516ce301c4c026df9373d1f9e669f9a1f762e1291e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,814
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x885f…8ed9backed Yes | 41c | 5,980$2,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,439.52 | 326 | 52.5%171 W · 155 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…5974backed No | 59c | 4,237$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,737.29 | 222 | 57.2%127 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 41c | 2,441$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.66 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9621…0a73backed No | 60c | 1,335$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.08 | 186 | 58.6%109 W · 77 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 41c | 1,054$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.07 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…ad16backed No | 59c | 1,017$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.95 | 75 | 64%48 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…aa25backed No | 59c | 850.24$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.24 | 281 | 52%146 W · 135 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…89aabacked Yes | 41c | 771.34$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.25 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d0…712dbacked No | 59c | 680$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.8 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b25…edc5backed No | 58c | 431.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.03 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | -7.3wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…7d1dbacked No | 58c | 344.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.83 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a49…651abacked No | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 230 | 52.6%121 W · 109 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Yes | 41c | 261.04$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.03 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…81f8backed No | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 41c | 250$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 223.11$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.43 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 42c | 217$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.14 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea5…26e3backed No | 59c | 210.69$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa845…6b8fbacked No | 59c | 210.28$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.28 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7aa…08c3backed No | 59c | 203.97$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07aa…63bfbacked No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 193 | 58%112 W · 81 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…e301backed No | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed No | 57c | 143.65$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.77 | 204 | 55.9%114 W · 90 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07ea…f3a4backed No | 57c | 132.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.47 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed No | 59c | 129$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 423 | 55.6%235 W · 188 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Yes | 44c | 103.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 43c | 102.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb3…5fe5backed No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 71 | 63.4%45 W · 26 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked No | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 95 | 54.7%52 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f6…b051backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0477…631cbacked No | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 42c | 83.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b5…fd79backed No | 59c | 76.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.27 | 185 | 56.2%104 W · 81 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…51debacked No | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 222 | 57.7%128 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4cf…0e95backed No | 54c | 56.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 139 | 46.8%65 W · 74 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 58c | 43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yes | 42c | 43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Yes | 41c | 36.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Yes | 42c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed No | 57c | 25.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 356 | 52.5%187 W · 169 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…6690backed No | 57c | 24.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.46 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b16…1290backed No | 58c | 20.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e2…af02backed No | 59c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewersthis page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.