MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeef76130e796cb5158639e0abeb1ec8bfaf20295201c47c725e6c503e5a398be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,791
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,791 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 53c | 55,555$29,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,110.85 | 1,414 | 49.5%700 W · 714 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 47c | 23,200$10,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,795.95 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 47c | 10,333$4,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,856.5 | 736 | 50.7%373 W · 363 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 49c | 8,209$4,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,022.57 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…5030backed Over | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 362 | 46.1%167 W · 195 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 3,561$1,673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,673.5 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Over | 48c | 3,125$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 399 | 53.6%214 W · 185 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 1,695$985 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.08 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 1,136$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.58 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed Over | 48c | 1,126$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.64 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 42c | 1,101$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.62 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 1,084$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.76 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 49c | 1,041$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.01 | 570 | 53.3%304 W · 266 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 47c | 1,002$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.94 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 710.36$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.49 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 36c | 689.58$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.62 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 47c | 640.19$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.49 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7a…f252backed Over | 57c | 526.4$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 452.84$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.63 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…9431backed Under | 52c | 438$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.24 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 398.84$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.83 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 53c | 390$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.3 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 47c | 350$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.5 | 1,219 | 53.9%657 W · 562 L | +32.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 47c | 315.24$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 48c | 305$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.4 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…5862backed Over | 65c | 300$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.56 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 70c | 228.82$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.65 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2396…9485backed Over | 48c | 206.65$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.19 | 325 | 52.9%172 W · 153 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 39c | 190$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 52c | 186$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 51c | 173$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5630…7574backed Over | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 163 | 55.8%91 W · 72 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf095…58c6backed Over | 49c | 160.08$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 103 | 51.5%53 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 49c | 153$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.53 | 333 | 52.3%174 W · 159 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 47c | 143$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 15c | 137$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 32c | 114.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b6…babfbacked Over | 32c | 114.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 318 | 49.7%158 W · 160 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 31c | 110$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 31c | 103.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 47c | 100.08$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 475 | 52%247 W · 228 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 53c | 94.07$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Under | 56c | 87.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 45c | 86.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88fb…db3abacked Over | 48c | 84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 741 | 43.5%322 W · 419 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 428 | 49.1%210 W · 218 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 46c | 74.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 647 | 52.4%339 W · 308 L | +28.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 72$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703a…391bbacked Over | 48c | 68.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc8…e209backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 461 | 52.1%240 W · 221 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe49f…03acbacked Over | 48c | 52.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 52c | 47.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 477 | 52.8%252 W · 225 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 54c | 47.83$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 47c | 47.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Over | 48c | 42.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 226 | 52.2%118 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 39.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 30c | 39.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 396 | 53%210 W · 186 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 62c | 38.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 963 | 49%472 W · 491 L | -39.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 58c | 36.05$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Over | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18cd…b710backed Under | 58c | 31.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 54c | 29.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 1,212 | 50%606 W · 606 L | +5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Under | 52c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 56c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 56c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 26.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 61c | 26.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 61c | 25.89$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,310 | 52.6%1,215 W · 1,095 L | +27.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 906 | 69.9%633 W · 273 L | +94.6wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 58c | 21.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 63c | 20.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Over | 53c | 19.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 416 | 48.8%203 W · 213 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.