MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d40be883ed23b0fac676da0696f275fa4226a611580ee272dfeaa4b11db7cb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,631
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,631 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 8,581$4,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,634.1 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 46c | 6,781$3,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,663.34 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 44c | 3,928$1,737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,191.14 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 19c | 3,886$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,159.5 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 3,788$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,947.78 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 52c | 2,550$1,326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.05 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Over | 77c | 2,330$1,805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,805.4 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 64c | 1,500$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.97 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 56c | 1,399$779 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$779.25 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Over | 52c | 1,213$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.66 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 40c | 912$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.2 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 40c | 865$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 64c | 853.15$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.05 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 60c | 746.78$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.07 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 50c | 637.48$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.8 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a09…ab7ebacked Over | 52c | 593.88$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.82 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4263…81f8backed Under | 59c | 573.48$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.32 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 39c | 491.45$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.91 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 40c | 413$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.8 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 399$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc22e…eab8backed Under | 41c | 309.22$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.23 | 488 | 51.6%252 W · 236 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…44d6backed Over | 68c | 291.53$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.24 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Over | 52c | 254.5$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.34 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Over | 68c | 248.18$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.76 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf025…48f8backed Over | 61c | 229.51$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 55c | 218$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 205.64$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.66 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under | 62c | 172.85$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.73 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x411e…ebf0backed Over | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9abf…e301backed Under | 61c | 142.09$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.26 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 131.97$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.27 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Over | 52c | 127.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Over | 52c | 127.25$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Under | 38c | 119.71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x212b…0ba5backed Under | 40c | 113.06$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.47 | 536 | 55.8%299 W · 237 L | +22.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x125a…df71backed Under | 33c | 112.52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.39 | 309 | 34.3%106 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdf…58e1backed Under | 41c | 109.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.14 | 462 | 55.8%258 W · 204 L | +21.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 60c | 96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 40c | 91.2$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a4…1963backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fa…30cebacked Under | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 233 | 57.5%134 W · 99 L | +22.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 60c | 55.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2906…555abacked Under | 40c | 50.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 49c | 48.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 58c | 40.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 45c | 35.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 37c | 32.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee5f…5468backed Over | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 40c | 28.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 42c | 27.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 44c | 26.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Over | 41c | 24.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…10f6backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 44c | 22.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 46c | 22.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Under | 48c | 20.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.94 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Over | 57c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 68c | 15.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee BrewersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.