TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Guardians vs. Red Sox

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Guardiansof Guardians, Red Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$97,598
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,887

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,598 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked Red Sox43c15,131$6,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,537.61,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Guardians43c14,546$6,227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,319.1734245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Red Sox58c13,558$7,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,903.611,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Red Sox58c8,952$5,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,19219649.5%97 W · 99 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Guardians41c7,089$2,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,182.838043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Red Sox58c5,271$3,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,057.1863152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc9…56d0backed Guardians42c5,026$2,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,915.082050%10 W · 10 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+17.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Red Sox57c4,444$2,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,533.0498149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Guardians79c3,927$3,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.6693240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01a…2485backed Red Sox58c3,720$2,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,157.591145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Guardians41c3,262$1,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,922.5595850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Guardians43c3,148$1,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,803.271,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb10e…beedbacked Guardians52c3,100$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,492.013046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2f8…56b6backed Guardians76c3,020$2,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$729.1421747%102 W · 115 L-0.7wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Guardians70c2,717$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.6243949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Guardians42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,16071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Guardians42c1,900$798 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1021,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Red Sox58c1,865$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,081.8323752.7%125 W · 112 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Guardians42c1,850$777 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,07350843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Red Sox57c1,596$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.642,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06b2…9f35backed Red Sox57c1,591$907 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.871643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Guardians42c1,550$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.9916349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians55c1,481$815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.069,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf79c…cb96backed Guardians43c1,366$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.739842.9%42 W · 56 L-6.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Guardians42c1,190$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.4728042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f4…55c1backed Red Sox16c1,127$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.226417.2%11 W · 53 L-5.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-44.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Red Sox32c1,030$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.921,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Guardians42c1,019$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.0224547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x60e6…9e8abacked Guardians41c1,000$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59032651.5%168 W · 158 L+14.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Red Sox35c997.45$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.862,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Guardians69c944.22$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.543,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa8b…23d2backed Red Sox59c849.44$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.173863.2%24 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Red Sox48c817.51$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.41,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b5e…83f8backed Red Sox57c772.12$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.1114747.6%70 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Red Sox19c732.78$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.7715033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Guardians42c700$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40644443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Red Sox57c700$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39920748.8%101 W · 106 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Red Sox59c699$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.4151953.2%276 W · 243 L-24.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Red Sox59c600$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35442452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8b5…41b3backed Red Sox5c600$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306131.1%19 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick28cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Red Sox50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74cd…2319backed Red Sox6c600$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362242.7%6 W · 218 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians42c598$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.841,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Red Sox2c589.36$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.675852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Guardians42c586.98$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.3873149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Guardians42c574.29$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.0951347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Red Sox6c550$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3322312.1%27 W · 196 L-8.0wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-39.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Guardians42c542.19$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.4783248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Guardians42c476.18$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.1956351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf9…88febacked Guardians43c460$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+41.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Guardians43c450.63$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.8614047.9%67 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Red Sox57c434.56$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.71,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Guardians69c432.02$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.534,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Red Sox4c362.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.984754.4%21 W · 454 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-72.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Red Sox59c350$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.518649.5%92 W · 94 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Guardians43c350$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.51,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Red Sox51c347$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.976,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc7…f8f2backed Red Sox58c340$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.2650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Red Sox58c336$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.881,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x409b…d3dabacked Red Sox58c251.72$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1462343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5d9d…02c7backed Red Sox57c239$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2335952.4%188 W · 171 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1888…e1cbbacked Guardians42c238.1$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.13043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2979…59e5backed Guardians43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.56450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x985c…e5d2backed Red Sox57c210.53$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12054455.1%300 W · 244 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3b6…97b7backed Red Sox59c203.39$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204856.3%27 W · 21 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+17.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Red Sox57c196.49$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11299951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Red Sox57c192.98$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11078454.5%427 W · 357 L+19.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Red Sox58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10043153.6%231 W · 200 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Red Sox58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2000…df78backed Red Sox58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004843.8%21 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Red Sox59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Guardians50c167.46$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9676456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca43…b369backed Red Sox58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8717243%74 W · 98 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked Guardians42c148.78$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.9885047.4%403 W · 447 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Red Sox12c148.04$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7678445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefa9…7a30backed Red Sox58c138$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0424346.1%112 W · 131 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Guardians43c136.79$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.9770946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Guardians42c132.88$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.071,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307e…2a3ebacked Red Sox58c120$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+47.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a03…47c1backed Red Sox59c101.69$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6011353.1%60 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fd4…6862backed Red Sox59c100.63$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.141741.2%7 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-25.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8643…85b2backed Red Sox58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587553.3%40 W · 35 L+0.4wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Red Sox42c99.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6640152.4%210 W · 191 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Red Sox57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x900b…34bcbacked Red Sox59c72.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4591…d19ebacked Red Sox57c70.18$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4014146.1%65 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed Guardians41c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.5862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Red Sox56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2869547.5%330 W · 365 L-16.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe05f…b3e8backed Guardians41c49.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.4929145.4%132 W · 159 L+15.3wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Guardians41c49$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.911,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf62…227dbacked Guardians44c48.91$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.3918850%94 W · 94 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a66…5b12backed Guardians43c46.51$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.5114450.7%73 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac1…5f0fbacked Guardians42c45$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.134257.6%197 W · 145 L+25.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x75b2…8d2ebacked Red Sox58c43.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253060%18 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Guardians55c38$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2512,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae7…9836backed Guardians42c35.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.531947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Red Sox57c35.09$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010352.4%54 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c3…766cbacked Red Sox58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203253.1%17 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa98d…0b0ebacked Red Sox58c33.88$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.652339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.