TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

LoL: Cloud9 vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Americas Cup Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FURIA Esportsof Cloud9, FURIA Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$477,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $477,735 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 224 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked FURIA Esports45c117,123$52,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,202.2855955.8%312 W · 247 L+50.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Cloud955c63,207$34,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,970.21,82745.6%834 W · 993 L+26.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe308…25cdbacked FURIA Esports39c35,260$13,899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,361.4466437.2%247 W · 417 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7a…be5dbacked Cloud91c24,980$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick20cpaid+192.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Cloud953c17,777$9,422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,421.8131153.4%166 W · 145 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-8.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1213…5ed6backed Cloud90c13,530$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.533444.1%15 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b9…0fc9backed FURIA Esports29c11,295$3,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,001.4734837.4%130 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fe9…706abacked Cloud962c11,219$7,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed FURIA Esports15c9,753$1,506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,247.677839.7%31 W · 47 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Cloud956c8,929$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00052848.9%258 W · 270 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cloud943c8,000$3,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,435.992,40642.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L+21.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Cloud961c6,239$3,833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,833.3126144.1%115 W · 146 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Cloud953c5,655$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.032729.6%8 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-28%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Cloud955c5,500$3,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,02513344.4%59 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2560…0b02backed FURIA Esports15c5,365$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,558.639749.1%195 W · 202 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc466…6201backed Cloud956c5,355$2,998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.84153.7%22 W · 19 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-12.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Cloud964c5,280$3,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,371.1818350.8%93 W · 90 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Cloud949c4,731$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,322.2567931.8%216 W · 463 L-31.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cloud911c3,275$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.4325923.2%60 W · 199 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc091…3d42backed FURIA Esports66c2,917$1,925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991.673850%19 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Cloud966c2,903$1,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.221,59234%541 W · 1,051 L-79.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-32.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Cloud958c2,820$1,633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.721,59842.4%677 W · 921 L-17.9wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Cloud937c2,672$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.151,02539.6%406 W · 619 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72a9…5225backed FURIA Esports15c2,400$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.118739.1%34 W · 53 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked FURIA Esports43c2,390$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.1450848.4%246 W · 262 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Cloud958c2,159$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.781,00342.5%426 W · 577 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7e2…826cbacked FURIA Esports61c2,135$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$836.136549.2%32 W · 33 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f04…1d79backed Cloud926c2,117$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5407532%24 W · 51 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x395f…dcacbacked FURIA Esports15c2,017$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,716.7126245.8%120 W · 142 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd359…6007backed FURIA Esports78c2,000$1,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.82240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-20.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed FURIA Esports14c2,000$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,719.9743442.4%184 W · 250 L+18.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked FURIA Esports16c1,988$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,673.0375630%227 W · 529 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Cloud960c1,946$1,172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.9523547.7%112 W · 123 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc093…de0ebacked FURIA Esports15c1,946$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.042544%11 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7ea…bbb3backed Cloud948c1,909$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$920.816328.6%18 W · 45 L-11.1wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-48.6%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked FURIA Esports16c1,896$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,592.3970456.4%397 W · 307 L+39.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Cloud953c1,867$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981.096149.2%30 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked FURIA Esports17c1,832$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.7329944.1%132 W · 167 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b12…43c8backed Cloud954c1,747$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.57343.8%32 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-28.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Cloud951c1,744$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.542,90538.5%1,119 W · 1,786 L-118.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7787backed FURIA Esports15c1,700$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,44564443%277 W · 367 L-27.0wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8adc…bafcbacked FURIA Esports44c1,632$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912.9425447.6%121 W · 133 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdee3…6fe5backed Cloud955c1,578$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.3328240.8%115 W · 167 L-16.1wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Cloud944c1,500$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.826556.9%37 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8fd…40ebbacked FURIA Esports14c1,495$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.951060%6 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+87.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed FURIA Esports32c1,444$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.31,20054.1%649 W · 551 L+28.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x809c…eca3backed Cloud932c1,309$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.452263.6%14 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Cloud937c1,290$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.0999338.6%383 W · 610 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cloud949c1,270$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.372,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0bcf…75c6backed FURIA Esports71c1,258$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.428929.2%26 W · 63 L-6.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-32%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e51…42cebacked FURIA Esports77c1,198$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.7536155.4%200 W · 161 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Cloud961c1,126$683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$683.11,73144.2%765 W · 966 L-28.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Cloud935c1,113$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.541,07926%281 W · 798 L-99.0wins-0.09per pick35cpaid-46.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed FURIA Esports15c1,111$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.442,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9833…3f04backed Cloud918c1,109$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1952123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed FURIA Esports47c1,000$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5301,46828.9%424 W · 1,044 L+23.5wins+0.02per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeffd…5a86backed FURIA Esports13c999.96$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.9744047.5%209 W · 231 L+11.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0133…64bcbacked Cloud956c970.91$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.713243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-23.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed FURIA Esports58c941.31$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.3585652.2%447 W · 409 L+34.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked Cloud958c896.09$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.731,15568.1%786 W · 369 L+35.1wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3bd8…e1fbbacked FURIA Esports74c895.92$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked FURIA Esports31c875.14$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.7922336.8%82 W · 141 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7767…4fb2backed FURIA Esports48c870.48$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.854062.5%25 W · 15 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+23.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x40b3…9ef3backed Cloud940c851.4$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3392330.4%7 W · 16 L-2.9wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdf43…ae9abacked FURIA Esports14c841.21$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.4420151.7%104 W · 97 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07e4…116abacked FURIA Esports15c818.91$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$697.934744.7%21 W · 26 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+24.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Cloud950c750.09$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.171,25838.6%485 W · 773 L-61.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Cloud955c730$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.528150.5%142 W · 139 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Cloud954c718.34$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.912143%52 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b82…a340backed FURIA Esports14c714.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.293138.7%12 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Cloud955c700$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3854744.7%21 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…a754backed FURIA Esports15c658.75$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.7535323.2%82 W · 271 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed FURIA Esports41c647.08$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.8669756.5%394 W · 303 L+26.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x207f…019dbacked FURIA Esports30c632.57$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.81154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick32cpaid+72%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Cloud955c587$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.2743947.6%209 W · 230 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Cloud959c559.87$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.8834945.6%159 W · 190 L-0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56b4…c4adbacked Cloud948c550$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.3712454%67 W · 57 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd01a…bf29backed Cloud966c540$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.47051.4%36 W · 34 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ae6…7acabacked FURIA Esports19c514.86$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.862839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Cloud954c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27040347.4%191 W · 212 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e1…d3a6backed Cloud921c500$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.51315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-78.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb70c…41d5backed FURIA Esports15c500$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42517633.5%59 W · 117 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cloud950c496.33$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.152,34140.3%943 W · 1,398 L-61.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked FURIA Esports75c466$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.111,13431%352 W · 782 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf79…850bbacked FURIA Esports61c465.47$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.28955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ac8…45c4backed FURIA Esports46c432.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.1951044.9%229 W · 281 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3c5…d432backed Cloud956c428.57$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2401533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-40.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xaa80…f251backed FURIA Esports47c422$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb24f…c638backed Cloud941c401.88$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6620051.5%103 W · 97 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed FURIA Esports16c400$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3361,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed FURIA Esports16c396$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.8927636.2%100 W · 176 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Cloud957c387$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.745344.6%202 W · 251 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5656…32fcbacked FURIA Esports40c384$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.789245.7%42 W · 50 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561d…94bebacked Cloud954c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20046552.7%245 W · 220 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed Cloud954c370.37$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005545.5%25 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdede…92d0backed FURIA Esports69c368.33$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.481369.2%9 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed Cloud934c360.54$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.271,72829.5%509 W · 1,219 L-123.2wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-39.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa750…0d0fbacked FURIA Esports47c340$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.240546.2%187 W · 218 L-1.4wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Cloud955c320.07$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.7823243.5%101 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Cloud954c316$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.8411141.4%46 W · 65 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.