Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on Day 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cad3fba16c1712de9aab3f155f122ccdb98c9e73765ae93725634f505177cde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $133,161
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 0c | 16,892$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 147 | 42.9%63 W · 84 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 6c | 12,572$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.11 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…61cebacked No | 1c | 9,136$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.08 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb236…1d5dbacked No | 14c | 4,713$646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.28 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked No | 8c | 4,077$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.21 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 1c | 4,075$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked No | 2c | 3,160$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked No | 2c | 2,480$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad85…78fcbacked No | 0c | 2,338$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x092f…18acbacked No | 2c | 2,162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49b2…ffd0backed No | 1c | 2,050$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed No | 15c | 1,781$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.14 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 3c | 1,712$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed No | 5c | 1,500$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 22c | 1,409$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.12 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed No | 7c | 1,049$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 3c | 850$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 19c | 799.99$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 169 | 43.2%73 W · 96 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 19c | 762$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.78 | 151 | 55%83 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 15c | 602.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.59 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 13c | 600$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5a…917ebacked No | 8c | 580.23$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 17c | 567.96$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 18c | 547.97$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.93 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc212…a125backed Yes | 80c | 497.52$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.53 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 4c | 457.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed No | 6c | 422$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed Yes | 76c | 400.11$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a67…a78ebacked No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked No | 17c | 375$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 18c | 356.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.39 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 6c | 352.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 189 | 14.3%27 W · 162 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed No | 10c | 338.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6426…bb53backed Yes | 72c | 333.35$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 12c | 332$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.29 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b5…e2ffbacked No | 7c | 298.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fff…be78backed No | 14c | 266$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 73c | 258.08$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 70c | 222$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 78c | 204.24$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.41 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 24c | 177.22$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 148 | 43.2%64 W · 84 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed No | 8c | 139.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 159 | 24.5%39 W · 120 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…7d80backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 20c | 55.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed No | 20c | 52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1374…3e56backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 78c | 14.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.