Earnings · resolved market
Will The Gap (GAP) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ccb7aa120d5076d1b0ed20c64271c9ba0740e1c69bb49627a921c17939fb42e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,272
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,272 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 62c | 1,010$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.73 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7973…7aa9backed No | 21c | 940.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +370.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765c…dbb6backed Yes | 53c | 636.72$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.7 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 35c | 481.13$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.04 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7463…972dbacked Yes | 44c | 454.35$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.05 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…a70fbacked No | 55c | 445.75$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.59 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +12.8wins | +0.40per pick | 48cpaid | +94.9%equal weight | 75+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 17c | 399.93$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.94 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 58c | 396.81$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.53 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe381…3ba9backed Yes | 7c | 311.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 251 | 25.5%64 W · 187 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 75c | 310$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.5 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 229.81$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked No | 29c | 217.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad12…b115backed Yes | 54c | 185.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…6b22backed Yes | 11c | 181$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +219.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 49c | 180.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.61 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked Yes | 20c | 153$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 16c | 140.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.01 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 41c | 130.61$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 22c | 113$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 18c | 111$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Yes | 13c | 96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9400…4f20backed No | 22c | 93.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +87%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x520c…c42dbacked Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 40c | 78.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.97 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabbd…f261backed Yes | 70c | 66.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 74c | 54.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 73c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 74c | 47.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 52c | 47.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ca…eb61backed Yes | 33c | 44.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 28c | 42.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed Yes | 53c | 30.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed No | 43c | 30.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8229…f97ebacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091f…c8d1backed Yes | 55c | 24.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 78c | 22.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafd7…f634backed Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488b…8ac0backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3734…4323backed Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.