MLB · resolved market

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0d515638ee7996f5e87afc94ba7d9820a6441d1ce4931c0f6206e62b3bc1130d

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets
Resolved: Jun 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $73,325
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $74,610

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,325 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8b88…8f33backed Philadelphia Phillies	47c	50,857$23,894 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26,962.55	448	51.6%231 W · 217 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed New York Mets	53c	22,787$12,068 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,068.47	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets	52c	10,357$5,342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,341.92	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed New York Mets	53c	9,662$5,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,121	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies	49c	5,894$2,872 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,022.04	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets	54c	5,514$2,975 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,974.71	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Mets	53c	3,875$2,063 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,062.65	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	3,220$1,447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,773.28	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets	55c	2,774$1,528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,528.08	2,104	51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L	+11.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed New York Mets	53c	2,766$1,466 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,465.98	920	54%497 W · 423 L	+23.1wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed New York Mets	53c	2,621$1,389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,389.11	1,572	48.3%759 W · 813 L	-6.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Philadelphia Phillies	47c	2,340$1,100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,240.43	14	85.7%12 W · 2 L	+5.7wins	+0.41per pick	45cpaid	+100.5%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed New York Mets	54c	1,662$897 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$896.77	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x815f…1eefbacked New York Mets	53c	1,559$826 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$826.38	912	52.4%478 W · 434 L	+12.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6871…e9dcbacked Philadelphia Phillies	46c	878.8$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$478.8	61	39.3%24 W · 37 L	-6.7wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6553…7a71backed New York Mets	53c	753.98$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.61	614	50.8%312 W · 302 L	+9.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Philadelphia Phillies	72c	690.51$496 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.51	228	67.1%153 W · 75 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets	55c	559.08$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.15	1,836	50.8%932 W · 904 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf930…e346backed Philadelphia Phillies	46c	434.78$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.78	133	54.9%73 W · 60 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Philadelphia Phillies	46c	408$188 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$220.32	1,119	45.5%509 W · 610 L	+16.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked New York Mets	54c	353.28$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.77	541	52.1%282 W · 259 L	+12.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed New York Mets	54c	301.83$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.99	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Philadelphia Phillies	54c	265$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.06	2,147	50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L	+27.8wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed New York Mets	53c	242$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.26	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9a0…c52bbacked Philadelphia Phillies	46c	239.13$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.13	231	45.5%105 W · 126 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed New York Mets	54c	225.13$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.57	694	47.6%330 W · 364 L	-9.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5729…b054backed Philadelphia Phillies	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	41cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88ba…b99abacked Philadelphia Phillies	49c	200.01$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.24	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed New York Mets	36c	189.78$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.62	3,457	51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L	+108.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked New York Mets	54c	149.98$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.24	2,376	49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L	+17.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed New York Mets	53c	124$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.72	2,296	49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L	+37.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e4a…5ba6backed Philadelphia Phillies	46c	113.65$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.37	115	42.6%49 W · 66 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets	55c	113$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.26	2,947	51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L	-34.0wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Philadelphia Phillies	46c	108.7$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.7	478	49%234 W · 244 L	+14.0wins	+0.03per pick	46cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Philadelphia Phillies	47c	106.38$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.38	515	45.2%233 W · 282 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc23…a9f2backed Philadelphia Phillies	46c	103$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.62	468	54.5%255 W · 213 L	+12.3wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Philadelphia Phillies	46c	103$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.62	721	54.2%391 W · 330 L	+20.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+144.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked New York Mets	54c	100$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	994	47.3%470 W · 524 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed New York Mets	55c	95.86$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.62	515	55.7%287 W · 228 L	+19.5wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed New York Mets	53c	94.34$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	80	46.3%37 W · 43 L	-4.2wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Philadelphia Phillies	54c	85$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.1	507	48.7%247 W · 260 L	-17.2wins	-0.03per pick	52cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed Philadelphia Phillies	48c	82.69$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43	209	44%92 W · 117 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Philadelphia Phillies	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb2e…7821backed New York Mets	54c	80$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	738	49.3%364 W · 374 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25c1…7e8ebacked New York Mets	55c	75.56$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.56	196	54.1%106 W · 90 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3255…ffb9backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	68.18$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.18	180	53.9%97 W · 83 L	+5.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked Philadelphia Phillies	45c	67.67$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.22	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked New York Mets	34c	61.19$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.9	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked New York Mets	54c	61$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.94	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe246…dedcbacked New York Mets	55c	54.55$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	267	53.9%144 W · 123 L	+7.5wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…97bbbacked Philadelphia Phillies	46c	54.35$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.35	391	49.1%192 W · 199 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets	42c	54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.63	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed New York Mets	57c	53.96$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.75	1,053	47.3%498 W · 555 L	-14.7wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked New York Mets	55c	50$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.25	1,172	49.1%575 W · 597 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae5…f940backed Philadelphia Phillies	45c	49.98$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.49	816	51.8%423 W · 393 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d8…e1b3backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	45.45$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.45	443	45.6%202 W · 241 L	-10.6wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Philadelphia Phillies	72c	40$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.12	439	54.7%240 W · 199 L	+30.6wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed New York Mets	29c	39.79$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	3,208	51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L	+146.6wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x522f…1164backed New York Mets	56c	36$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.16	392	50.3%197 W · 195 L	+18.0wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed New York Mets	54c	32.79$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd22f…d0eebacked Philadelphia Phillies	46c	32.61$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.61	91	46.2%42 W · 49 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	52cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10ac…0e0bbacked New York Mets	53c	31.62$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.76	119	51.3%61 W · 58 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48b9…abe2backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	348	43.4%151 W · 197 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…0eb2backed Philadelphia Phillies	44c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.8	859	49.1%422 W · 437 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked New York Mets	46c	28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	4,381	44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L	+77.8wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c4…622fbacked Philadelphia Phillies	48c	26.59$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	215	49.8%107 W · 108 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Philadelphia Phillies	46c	23.93$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.92	580	54.5%316 W · 264 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57bd…1c8cbacked Philadelphia Phillies	46c	23.73$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.73	29	48.3%14 W · 15 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	56cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd155…8250backed New York Mets	53c	22.51$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	509	54%275 W · 234 L	+15.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed New York Mets	55c	22.17$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	528	52.1%275 W · 253 L	+13.7wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d2…4268backed New York Mets	54c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.88	147	53.1%78 W · 69 L	-3.4wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2638…8e2dbacked New York Mets	53c	21.73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.52	132	52.3%69 W · 63 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d6…9892backed New York Mets	53c	20.02$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	344	51.5%177 W · 167 L	-8.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed New York Mets	55c	18.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	1,464	63.5%929 W · 535 L	-10.1wins	-0.01per pick	64cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x381c…c62dbacked New York Mets	56c	18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+2.9wins	+0.26per pick	46cpaid	+60.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 5.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Over won
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Over won
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-2.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-4.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event