TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,587
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,735

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,587 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c76…c926backed Yes42c5,717$2,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,297.711,29250.2%648 W · 644 L+18.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed No56c2,763$1,547 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,547.1223357.9%135 W · 98 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed No55c2,587$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.6220455.9%114 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick56cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed No58c2,248$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30018658.6%109 W · 77 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c8e…a316backed Yes42c2,000$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.9922638.5%87 W · 139 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed No57c1,858$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,056.4140753.6%218 W · 189 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked No57c1,754$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f1a…bc89backed No58c1,724$999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.273551.4%18 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Yes45c1,607$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.5832152%167 W · 154 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b66…336abacked Yes44c1,364$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.6411652.6%61 W · 55 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Yes42c1,279$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$743.5561352.5%322 W · 291 L+29.6wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes42c1,187$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.5616746.7%78 W · 89 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Yes44c1,168$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.699,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No58c1,000$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.411655.2%64 W · 52 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-8.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked Yes44c960$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.613649.3%67 W · 69 L+10.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+68.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf5d1…cdc9backed No58c915.75$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530.833525.7%9 W · 26 L-6.8wins-0.19per pick45cpaid-46.4%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Yes43c891.19$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.671,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No57c875.7$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.6716135.4%57 W · 104 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeff8…68ebbacked No59c841.66$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.262642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Yes44c636.36$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.3650949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3186…2a53backed Yes43c557.97$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.999455.3%52 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes44c521.19$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.884,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce00…7d1dbacked No58c519.28$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30017952.5%94 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d3…b524backed No58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013748.2%66 W · 71 L-6.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-7.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes45c512$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.61,85153.1%982 W · 869 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5331…3672backed Yes45c453.87$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.6317540.6%71 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad8…5004backed No56c368.56$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.3918855.3%104 W · 84 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd56c…bdd5backed No58c366.31$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.465545.5%25 W · 30 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes45c353.96$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.382,29152.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes42c349.99$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.9917652.8%93 W · 83 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No17c268$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5670737.6%266 W · 441 L+24.5wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+15.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x09b5…fd79backed No56c267.86$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15018556.2%104 W · 81 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd1f…9136backed No58c257.65$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013850%69 W · 69 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Yes43c238.44$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.1751545.2%233 W · 282 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0925…dda4backed No56c219$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.645459.3%32 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91bc…28d6backed No57c210.53$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12019754.8%108 W · 89 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd2a…8dbdbacked No57c183.96$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.522147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9a49…651abacked No56c180$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.823052.6%121 W · 109 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61d8…b596backed No56c180$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.84438.6%17 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-27%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x41c5…0b24backed No56c148.79$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845743.9%25 W · 32 L-7.2wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-23.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3b46…fd16backed No56c145$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.26556.9%37 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea5…26e3backed No56c133.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7519454.6%106 W · 88 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa422…d210backed No57c132.21$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7512555.2%69 W · 56 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Yes44c130$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.826845.9%123 W · 145 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0477…631cbacked No57c105.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6017155.6%95 W · 76 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ad8…8a2cbacked No57c105.26$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603948.7%19 W · 20 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Yes45c101.05$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.0544348.5%215 W · 228 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes73c99$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4377752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf0…fdbebacked No56c99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.448264.6%53 W · 29 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No63c96.63$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8888046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes43c96.11$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.781,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Yes43c90.7$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.719353.9%104 W · 89 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes39c90$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.681,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x57af…81cebacked No57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505855.2%32 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes42c80.5$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.612,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a3d…9351backed No56c80.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes42c70.65$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.986,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed No57c69.19$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4420944%92 W · 117 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed Yes43c64.47$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7577952.1%406 W · 373 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f3d…95b1backed Yes48c54.29$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2928639.2%112 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe2b…51debacked No56c53.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3022257.7%128 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3e4…013dbacked Yes44c52.36$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa087…d888backed No58c51.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309753.6%52 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.335,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Yes44c49.98$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.241,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed No54c45.84$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.988,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…79c3backed Yes44c45.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.484052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9375…5a37backed No56c44.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256253.2%33 W · 29 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4a…3026backed No57c43.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.755552.7%29 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Yes37c41.97$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4423854.2%129 W · 109 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe7c…406cbacked Yes44c41.37$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.173240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xea10…a070backed Yes42c37.53$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5930048%144 W · 156 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb84d…8b3abacked No58c34.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201250%6 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d10…940abacked No56c30.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.221,01447.7%484 W · 530 L-28.0wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x504a…a236backed No58c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.42065%13 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed No53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.91,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes44c30$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.89141.8%38 W · 53 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5577…988cbacked No56c26.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,80353.8%970 W · 833 L+17.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0157…a97ebacked No56c25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410950.5%55 W · 54 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e94…776bbacked Yes44c23.8$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3318444.6%82 W · 102 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.