TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs paiN (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
paiNof Gentle Mates, paiN
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$430,082
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$484,274

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $430,082 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1610…ae49backed Gentle Mates9c40,059$3,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,581.5613548.9%66 W · 69 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x751b…73fdbacked paiN80c26,885$21,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,384.9125655.1%141 W · 115 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe183…62e6backed Gentle Mates36c26,406$9,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,482.82951.7%15 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed paiN57c23,464$13,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,026.751838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-30.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Gentle Mates44c23,321$10,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,320.7414145.4%64 W · 77 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed paiN57c18,270$10,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,801.0719055.8%106 W · 84 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d83…d89cbacked Gentle Mates44c17,256$7,512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,512.045451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+19.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a63…fc03backed paiN55c13,056$7,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,864.4442142%177 W · 244 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c82…1f13backed paiN54c10,587$5,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,883.3111758.1%68 W · 49 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x81f4…8300backed Gentle Mates21c10,330$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.517459.5%44 W · 30 L+6.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+21.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae2b…9cc3backed paiN79c10,134$8,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.7421854.1%118 W · 100 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed paiN55c8,602$4,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,843.511,60646.8%752 W · 854 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked paiN57c7,655$4,363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,291.6532552.6%171 W · 154 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d5…2ec4backed Gentle Mates43c7,418$3,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,189.781747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked paiN59c6,909$4,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,801.461,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed Gentle Mates43c6,691$2,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,876.9984658.4%494 W · 352 L+60.7wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x30c1…9f91backed Gentle Mates42c6,425$2,699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,698.542944.8%13 W · 16 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed paiN56c6,009$3,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,643.7522849.6%113 W · 115 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24c7…77c4backed Gentle Mates31c5,656$1,753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,753.3518846.3%87 W · 101 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…38cebacked Gentle Mates44c5,481$2,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411.49450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+14.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xddc3…029cbacked paiN54c5,461$2,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,49792456.8%525 W · 399 L+2.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d6…86fdbacked paiN79c5,063$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,063.234257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa803…2949backed Gentle Mates44c4,545$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010739.3%42 W · 65 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedcc…41a1backed Gentle Mates44c4,501$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.3221953.4%117 W · 102 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed paiN70c4,494$3,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,366.3767645%304 W · 372 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9279…4748backed Gentle Mates21c4,348$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.1418557.8%107 W · 78 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked paiN58c4,328$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.5927452.9%145 W · 129 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85fb…89babacked Gentle Mates53c4,000$2,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,128.0811346.9%53 W · 60 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Gentle Mates42c4,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.981,00752.4%528 W · 479 L+27.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0562…18a4backed Gentle Mates38c3,931$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50020448.5%99 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gentle Mates41c3,628$1,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,485.177,89250.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L+182.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe480…ee6cbacked Gentle Mates19c3,581$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.454751.1%24 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60cb…3d72backed Gentle Mates46c3,380$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.3wins-0.41per pick54cpaid-80%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked paiN63c3,294$2,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.021,47651.8%765 W · 711 L-4.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked paiN79c3,030$2,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.35066%33 W · 17 L+4.0wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+19.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked paiN57c3,020$1,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.691,62144.8%726 W · 895 L+3.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Gentle Mates43c3,000$1,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,289.9766551.9%345 W · 320 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea7e…f207backed paiN54c2,980$1,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.193339.4%13 W · 20 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb93b…4208backed paiN57c2,938$1,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.5224339.5%96 W · 147 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed Gentle Mates40c2,774$1,107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,107.0696740.7%394 W · 573 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a74…6cd2backed Gentle Mates38c2,726$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.1724262%150 W · 92 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Gentle Mates46c2,609$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20029449.3%145 W · 149 L-10.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb93…e1d3backed paiN69c2,500$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7802556%14 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked paiN65c2,239$1,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.461,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked paiN55c2,184$1,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982.778052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked Gentle Mates38c2,126$811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.7335940.4%145 W · 214 L-15.9wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Gentle Mates44c2,016$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.162,05741.5%853 W · 1,204 L-50.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked paiN63c2,000$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$733.532,59947.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L-30.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Gentle Mates43c1,806$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.3714846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1311…d450backed paiN56c1,790$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$787.613646.3%63 W · 73 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8400…274cbacked paiN79c1,742$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.985658.9%33 W · 23 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick63cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked Gentle Mates43c1,646$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7009445.7%43 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gentle Mates44c1,584$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.535,47446.9%2,565 W · 2,909 L+38.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af2…a2bbbacked Gentle Mates57c1,500$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8554348.8%21 W · 22 L+0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Gentle Mates44c1,468$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.8511253.6%60 W · 52 L-4.9wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Gentle Mates46c1,375$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.555236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed paiN73c1,365$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.9588746.7%414 W · 473 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked Gentle Mates57c1,216$699 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.0175145.4%341 W · 410 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed Gentle Mates9c1,170$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.292035%7 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x495d…68d8backed Gentle Mates59c1,160$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.8417554.9%96 W · 79 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed paiN57c1,139$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.7720859.6%124 W · 84 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed paiN56c1,127$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.6780542.2%340 W · 465 L-16.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e8a…5f49backed paiN57c1,120$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.6910150.5%51 W · 50 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-16.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Gentle Mates41c1,084$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.431,08050.9%550 W · 530 L+38.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Gentle Mates44c1,082$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.751,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68c6…e5fcbacked Gentle Mates1c1,060$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Gentle Mates28c1,054$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.3766446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed paiN58c1,034$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.4848350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b5…f95bbacked Gentle Mates43c1,000$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.648149.4%40 W · 41 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed Gentle Mates41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-48.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe361…ae44backed paiN56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44025145.8%115 W · 136 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc19…31c4backed Gentle Mates44c963$423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.410731.8%34 W · 73 L-8.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed Gentle Mates20c963$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.63540%14 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4951…3038backed paiN56c955.36$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.366251.6%32 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Gentle Mates30c940.97$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.695,81037.8%2,196 W · 3,614 L+78.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Gentle Mates20c933.81$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.663341.9%265 W · 368 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e2c…9642backed Gentle Mates23c932.45$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.6717444.3%77 W · 97 L+0.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Gentle Mates13c918.52$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.192,30945.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L-62.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked paiN57c893$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.9917954.2%97 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Gentle Mates43c887.93$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.131,60552.6%845 W · 760 L+57.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Gentle Mates42c869.83$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.332,60830.9%807 W · 1,801 L-103.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x996c…b6ecbacked paiN69c838.75$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.0118860.1%113 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3724…69b5backed Gentle Mates44c815.91$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3597943%34 W · 45 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb81…1f15backed Gentle Mates41c800$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3281163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+58.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Gentle Mates41c759.74$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.491,15448.3%557 W · 597 L+4.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2cc…893cbacked Gentle Mates39c733.38$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.2338941.9%163 W · 226 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed paiN56c733.21$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.8968059.3%403 W · 277 L+64.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5674…8b14backed paiN59c718.64$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.6436742.8%157 W · 210 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7020…d655backed Gentle Mates22c681.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15013147.3%62 W · 69 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+13.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd88…dadbbacked Gentle Mates44c670$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.864852%337 W · 311 L+10.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac70…97b6backed Gentle Mates44c663.18$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.81361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a9a…a9c7backed Gentle Mates8c629.26$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509241.3%38 W · 54 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c15…5b4bbacked Gentle Mates41c600$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2461250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94f1…b9e7backed paiN59c599.76$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.8834848.3%168 W · 180 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…2d3dbacked Gentle Mates18c565.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.736440.1%146 W · 218 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-21.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd856…6a24backed Gentle Mates36c556.41$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.42050%10 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5416…9d9cbacked Gentle Mates44c547.86$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.06616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-66.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac64…cca0backed Gentle Mates37c545.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked paiN56c542.17$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.9244747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Gentle Mates20c524.56$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9140439.6%160 W · 244 L-1.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.