Us Politics · resolved market
Will Harvard University cave to Trump’s demands before June?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f1d610fb90e942dbe2bc32506c685dcda6e2efdc69ce65fc388ffb242df4e87
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 12c | 2,878$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.34 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes | 12c | 2,345$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.21 | 106 | 30.2%32 W · 74 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked Yes | 11c | 2,162$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.21 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed Yes | 10c | 1,810$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 76 | 72.4%55 W · 21 L | +14.7wins | +0.19per pick | 53cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 9c | 1,756$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.08 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 11c | 1,605$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.88 | 148 | 19.6%29 W · 119 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 10c | 1,366$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.79 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3143…81b1backed Yes | 11c | 1,100$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.49 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 11c | 1,026$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.83 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed Yes | 9c | 1,007$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.59 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 787.48$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…ab69backed Yes | 10c | 700$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c1…01f2backed Yes | 13c | 565$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 24c | 532$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.68 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d68…3041backed Yes | 11c | 455.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed Yes | 28c | 439.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.8 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…e179backed Yes | 12c | 426.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed Yes | 26c | 393.61$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.94 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 70c | 296.14$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.84 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 13c | 246.85$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 76c | 222$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.28 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x944e…bdcfbacked No | 78c | 128.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe340…5666backed Yes | 12c | 124.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 76c | 106.14$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 102$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b0b…cac4backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01b…73f4backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 23c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 77c | 90$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 395 | 22.8%90 W · 305 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b8…f5c8backed No | 75c | 76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51cc…c6c9backed Yes | 24c | 63.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd136…8866backed Yes | 19c | 52.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 80c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd535…fa67backed No | 72c | 44.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c23…b248backed Yes | 25c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…ab71backed No | 73c | 40.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba8f…ec5dbacked No | 75c | 26.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa129…57c3backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 78c | 20.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d2…5aaabacked No | 77c | 17.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…2493backed No | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.