Fifa International · resolved market
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f27aebb205bdf8eb1c9503128f1e1d05fc673fa2bd512513b557e874f8f6589
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,966
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,966 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 8c | 2,523$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.8 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…17b5backed Yes | 15c | 2,517$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.11 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 13c | 2,228$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.39 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a8…3d62backed Yes | 15c | 1,849$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,551$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2862…9f13backed Yes | 14c | 1,476$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f10…f544backed Yes | 14c | 1,465$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 8c | 1,258$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a31…1164backed Yes | 12c | 972.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.05 | 186 | 36.6%68 W · 118 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b6…3564backed Yes | 8c | 965.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x814d…b842backed Yes | 12c | 897.8$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 181 | 39.8%72 W · 109 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e659backed Yes | 12c | 839$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 12c | 786.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 11c | 737.05$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 7c | 621.43$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.74 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 504.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.42 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa54…c182backed Yes | 14c | 500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5797…c232backed Yes | 14c | 488.88$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 488$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.66 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Yes | 3c | 453.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 12c | 447.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.88 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 15c | 341.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 322.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 242.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 10c | 225.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.8 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ab…6a8fbacked Yes | 11c | 186.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 8c | 175.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 10c | 159$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 194 | 45.4%88 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c2…4e49backed Yes | 13c | 155.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2de…9ce4backed Yes | 10c | 152.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked Yes | 14c | 142.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 279 | 40.5%113 W · 166 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 13c | 142$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 589 | 26.8%158 W · 431 L | -30.5wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 11c | 129.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 144 | 36.1%52 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…0cabbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 238 | 55.5%132 W · 106 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc32b…8cafbacked Yes | 16c | 93.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?this page
- Will USA be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will USA be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will USA be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will USA be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?No won
- Will USA win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.