TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
FUT Esportsof PARIVISION, FUT Esports
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$228,517
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$258,528

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,517 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x26f8…3452backed FUT Esports50c11,990$5,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,994.9319949.7%99 W · 100 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+14.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed FUT Esports45c9,523$4,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,195.962,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION53c7,203$3,796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,796.324346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed FUT Esports37c6,307$2,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,995.3981843.2%353 W · 465 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked PARIVISION75c6,090$4,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,567.6476058%441 W · 319 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed PARIVISION56c5,935$3,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,313.211,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked PARIVISION78c5,928$4,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,622.8744957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked FUT Esports42c5,922$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,447.1635850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e53…bf9abacked FUT Esports43c4,160$1,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,371.286947.8%33 W · 36 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4e5…d034backed FUT Esports44c3,589$1,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.9613044.6%58 W · 72 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…1d79backed FUT Esports45c3,091$1,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.2720946.9%98 W · 111 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION76c2,984$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,258.4545058.9%265 W · 185 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked FUT Esports52c2,801$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,333.8759839.6%237 W · 361 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked FUT Esports44c2,642$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.911,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed PARIVISION55c2,500$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,37546749.7%232 W · 235 L-12.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4667…cab0backed FUT Esports45c2,477$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,368.792437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked FUT Esports36c2,087$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.161,25646.7%587 W · 669 L+17.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked PARIVISION49c1,939$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$950.0181751.7%422 W · 395 L-6.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked PARIVISION50c1,746$873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87375245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked PARIVISION29c1,730$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.822,77637.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L-140.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed PARIVISION56c1,728$974 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$973.837445.7%171 W · 203 L-29.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1e25…8584backed PARIVISION56c1,696$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-46.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked PARIVISION55c1,647$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904.123,25750.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L+98.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed FUT Esports44c1,575$688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.7516152.8%85 W · 76 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed FUT Esports29c1,546$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.4387047.9%417 W · 453 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-14%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4da…1772backed FUT Esports47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79553746.2%248 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed FUT Esports46c1,497$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.844,03848.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L-23.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed PARIVISION53c1,470$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.2865546.9%307 W · 348 L+18.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa79a…94d9backed PARIVISION55c1,425$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.291435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-38.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked FUT Esports42c1,400$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.211,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed PARIVISION46c1,368$623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.5861837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked PARIVISION52c1,321$694 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$693.712,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed FUT Esports47c1,265$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.3139248.7%191 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-12.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe41f…d9dcbacked PARIVISION58c1,258$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.3565650.3%330 W · 326 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfbb…55b0backed PARIVISION79c1,250$987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.47156.3%40 W · 31 L-3.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed FUT Esports44c1,250$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.7541850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdf3…1bb5backed PARIVISION59c1,249$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$734.3517538.3%67 W · 108 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed PARIVISION58c1,237$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$718.913937.4%52 W · 87 L-8.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd20f…2f35backed PARIVISION28c1,213$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.728750.6%44 W · 43 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x255f…cd91backed PARIVISION56c1,178$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$658.958947.2%42 W · 47 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bae…885abacked PARIVISION73c1,171$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.4127658%160 W · 116 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14fa…73f0backed PARIVISION64c1,150$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.8110753.3%57 W · 50 L-0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed FUT Esports45c1,075$483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59224944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa44a…88ecbacked PARIVISION56c1,071$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.675347.2%25 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a78…add7backed PARIVISION49c1,052$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.221,96946.7%919 W · 1,050 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed PARIVISION75c1,002$751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751.2357358.8%337 W · 236 L+16.1wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0656…4d9bbacked PARIVISION1c1,000$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131943.6%7 W · 187 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-48.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14a0…22bbbacked PARIVISION56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5601,39365.9%918 W · 475 L+26.8wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c2d…dd1ebacked FUT Esports49c999.5$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.2939970.7%282 W · 117 L+38.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+14.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed FUT Esports24c986.12$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.2720440.7%83 W · 121 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf5e…4189backed PARIVISION57c977.52$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.1933452.1%174 W · 160 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed PARIVISION58c975.77$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.9578639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed PARIVISION57c974.2$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.2946340.8%189 W · 274 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed PARIVISION52c881.27$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$459.065,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked PARIVISION58c867.49$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.6712352.8%65 W · 58 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed PARIVISION58c866.07$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.6724544.5%109 W · 136 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc25…4fa8backed PARIVISION57c854.56$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.113453%71 W · 63 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed PARIVISION58c735.05$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.2311546.1%53 W · 62 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed FUT Esports45c700$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38853444.9%240 W · 294 L+11.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked FUT Esports45c684.41$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.41,51357.2%865 W · 648 L+65.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed FUT Esports22c667.26$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.091,27821.9%280 W · 998 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked FUT Esports51c661.42$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.541,39848.4%676 W · 722 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked FUT Esports43c625.68$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.487,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed FUT Esports23c605.39$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.0946345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda32…04a1backed PARIVISION55c599.99$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.9931444.9%141 W · 173 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce80…08edbacked PARIVISION50c582$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29111947.1%56 W · 63 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b8…5379backed PARIVISION46c579.49$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5831452.2%164 W · 150 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x846c…0366backed PARIVISION68c577.13$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.1418963.5%120 W · 69 L+0.7wins0.00per pick63cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed FUT Esports51c567.52$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.9152951.4%272 W · 257 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked FUT Esports41c563.07$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.742,60452.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L+98.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed PARIVISION51c506.34$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.2624641.9%103 W · 143 L-14.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-13.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed PARIVISION52c502.03$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.235549.1%27 W · 28 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed PARIVISION59c457.8$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.155466.7%36 W · 18 L+5.1wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed PARIVISION58c454.39$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.1121351.2%109 W · 104 L-1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x307d…9163backed PARIVISION63c449.99$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.522365%145 W · 78 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4031…92c8backed PARIVISION45c447.86$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.1150846.3%235 W · 273 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked FUT Esports48c443.71$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.3652837.1%196 W · 332 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed PARIVISION55c441.82$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.2660358.5%353 W · 250 L-12.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebe7…ddf5backed PARIVISION71c416.24$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.7534156.6%193 W · 148 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd96…e623backed PARIVISION57c400$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22821055.7%117 W · 93 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x70d8…5d64backed PARIVISION60c400$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24012452.4%65 W · 59 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ff…6431backed PARIVISION75c395.04$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.4623165.8%152 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed PARIVISION53c388.44$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3656732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed PARIVISION51c382.21$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.096060%36 W · 24 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed PARIVISION55c359.64$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.88552.9%45 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb87…0335backed FUT Esports46c358.98$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.8436554.8%200 W · 165 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x974a…98c3backed FUT Esports28c355.86$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.372556%14 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+20.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb775…36f5backed PARIVISION76c348.55$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.922757.3%130 W · 97 L+10.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7972…594fbacked FUT Esports28c344.28$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.618951.7%46 W · 43 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-9.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked FUT Esports23c342.06$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.585658.9%33 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked PARIVISION70c329.74$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.8238454.2%208 W · 176 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ac…2f1ebacked PARIVISION31c313.74$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3127751.6%143 W · 134 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed FUT Esports50c310.78$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.589254.3%50 W · 42 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8769…04aebacked PARIVISION61c302.45$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.664564.4%29 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93c8…adffbacked FUT Esports46c301.33$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.9614046.4%65 W · 75 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f9c…c2c8backed PARIVISION77c300$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23130%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked FUT Esports37c300$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1891,57335.3%556 W · 1,017 L+22.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2ed…2a85backed PARIVISION75c298.35$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.7622556.9%128 W · 97 L+0.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked PARIVISION36c295.69$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.543,91036.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L-197.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f6a…04ebbacked PARIVISION57c292.26$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.595653.6%30 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.