TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,209
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,209 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3d5a…c59ebacked Over51c3,455$1,761 inLost-$1,761.05333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-39.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under49c3,235$1,585 inWon+$1,649.933,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaac8…b6f1backed Under60c797.35$478 inWon+$318.944957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+28.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over40c787.35$315 inLost-$314.942,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under50c536.98$270 inWon+$267.265,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Under50c273.78$137 inWon+$136.8920049%98 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Under49c73.87$36 inWon+$37.6739055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56cd…2ddcbacked Under48c51.63$25 inWon+$26.6311845.8%54 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under50c49.48$25 inWon+$24.7437755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed Under50c44.23$22 inWon+$22.129244.6%41 W · 51 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1970…e980backed Under50c30.52$15 inWon+$15.268037.5%30 W · 50 L-7.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-22.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked Over48c30$14 inLost-$14.460049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Over53c29.05$15 inLost-$15.4836949.6%183 W · 186 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under57c27$15 inWon+$11.611,04851.7%542 W · 506 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Over49c23.44$12 inLost-$11.5114471.5%103 W · 41 L+22.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed Under50c20$10 inWon+$10450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.