TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 11.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,691
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,966

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,691 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2d46…c046backed Yes35c1,156$404 inLost-$4041526.7%4 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.19per pick46cpaid-40.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No65c952.37$616 inWon+$33639265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6bde…b181backed Yes44c231$102 inLost-$101.641450%7 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f4c…8815backed Yes32c219.52$70 inLost-$70922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Yes40c217.98$88 inLost-$87.81,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed No69c216.53$150 inWon+$66.5515362.1%95 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked No69c138.67$96 inWon+$42.727074.1%200 W · 70 L+30.5wins+0.11per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5023…a00fbacked Yes33c86.67$29 inLost-$28.855444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No61c50$31 inWon+$19.565630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x8482…3f7abacked No50c42.82$21 inWon+$21.4160049.8%299 W · 301 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeca1…57e4backed Yes50c38$19 inLost-$1919245.3%87 W · 105 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x376d…bc1bbacked No66c30.53$20 inWon+$10.389869.4%68 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No69c28.66$20 inWon+$8.881,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes40c27.53$11 inLost-$11.144,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0278…5f1fbacked No78c27.17$21 inWon+$5.987240.3%29 W · 43 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.