TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 200.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,635
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,515

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,635 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37c1…c53abacked Under50c618.56$311 inWon+$307.271,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b23…e20fbacked Over50c600$300 inLost-$30049938.9%194 W · 305 L-23.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under51c213.88$110 inWon+$103.893,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under50c201.98$101 inWon+$100.9919650.5%99 W · 97 L+8.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x440d…351fbacked Over49c200$99 inLost-$98.784062.5%25 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Over44c178.57$78 inLost-$7817047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa0…aa66backed Over49c159.82$78 inLost-$78.312955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Under56c151.41$85 inWon+$66.1714438.9%56 W · 88 L+32.5wins+0.23per pick16cpaid+228.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x8118…8c36backed Over41c60.98$25 inLost-$252142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-26.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x428e…66c8backed Over49c40.82$20 inLost-$20875%6 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x647c…a772backed Over48c25.74$12 inLost-$12.291637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9be6…b8b2backed Over50c20$10 inLost-$103262.5%20 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x13e5…1ea5backed Under66c19.52$13 inWon+$6.7320049%98 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1fc…7cc1backed Under59c17.4$10 inWon+$7.214471.5%103 W · 41 L+22.1wins+0.15per pick56cpaid+25%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.