TailMyPicks
Market

NBA · resolved market

Tobias Harris: Points O/U 14.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,126

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,092 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x146a…eb42backed Yes31c418.15$128 inWon+$290.26850%4 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+48%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x73e8…cd6fbacked No69c200$138 inLost-$13839265.1%255 W · 137 L+31.0wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Yes33c186$61 inWon+$124.963,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No57c153.8$88 inLost-$87.890863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked No68c147.9$101 inLost-$100.851,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xda60…595cbacked Yes43c116.28$50 inWon+$66.281250%6 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe86d…ada3backed No70c98.57$69 inLost-$6915362.1%95 W · 58 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bf7…6f57backed No69c60$41 inLost-$41.430256.6%171 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe93…8d0ebacked No71c42$30 inLost-$29.8232866.5%218 W · 110 L+15.4wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…ba2cbacked No56c19.99$11 inLost-$11.326957.2%154 W · 115 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No70c15.63$11 inLost-$114,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked No69c14.58$10 inLost-$10.0692058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.