NBA · resolved market
Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3cfca2ef1df84af33b00dedeee26ca989331f0f5577dcb69518e30a16259d07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,821
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,821 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 8,312$4,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,072.87 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Under | 51c | 4,526$2,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,217.36 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 46c | 4,249$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.17 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc43…96d3backed Under | 51c | 4,043$2,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,961.5 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 52c | 3,631$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,759.77 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf988…d63bbacked Over | 48c | 2,080$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.39 | 285 | 54%154 W · 131 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 54c | 1,725$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$792.02 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Under | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.97 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over | 48c | 1,146$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 874 | 53.3%466 W · 408 L | +19.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Over | 46c | 942.83$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.7 | 377 | 55.2%208 W · 169 L | +23.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 47c | 840.76$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.46 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 51c | 597.13$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.59 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 542$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.72 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Under | 52c | 434.39$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Under | 54c | 410.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.97 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba58…28c2backed Over | 53c | 378.3$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 89 | 52.8%47 W · 42 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6292…d254backed Under | 54c | 370$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.2 | 208 | 46.6%97 W · 111 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x513d…c44cbacked Under | 55c | 363.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…c8ffbacked Under | 53c | 338.18$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.18 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab2…8fdabacked Under | 57c | 253$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.79 | 197 | 45.2%89 W · 108 L | -7.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Under | 53c | 246.93$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.93 | 158 | 57%90 W · 68 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 48c | 197.13$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.15 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 179.66$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.33 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a85…3699backed Over | 49c | 158.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Under | 53c | 150.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.57 | 1,141 | 48%548 W · 593 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 456 | 46.7%213 W · 243 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 130.61$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.74 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Over | 48c | 129.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.3 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2db1…45e5backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.65 | 248 | 49.6%123 W · 125 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8632…4696backed Over | 48c | 108.3$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 553 | 47.9%265 W · 288 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Under | 53c | 102.82$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 49c | 94.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…31c3backed Over | 49c | 94.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.44 | 135 | 41.5%56 W · 79 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42f2…fdb4backed Under | 53c | 93.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 47c | 87.82$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 45c | 85.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 83.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 54c | 82.29$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 969 | 56.3%546 W · 423 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 43c | 80.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 236 | 51.3%121 W · 115 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 51c | 76.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 45c | 74.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 474 | 36.7%174 W · 300 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 47c | 72.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.99 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Over | 44c | 64.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc18a…b3dbbacked Over | 50c | 53.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 533 | 39.6%211 W · 322 L | -39.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a4…5e83backed Under | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb78…0f08backed Over | 47c | 43.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbd…7d08backed Under | 52c | 41.67$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec6…e52cbacked Under | 50c | 40.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 52c | 40.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…5925backed Over | 47c | 39.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 176 | 43.2%76 W · 100 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Over | 49c | 38.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x997c…a9a9backed Over | 45c | 37.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Over | 46c | 34.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810d…6080backed Over | 46c | 34.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Under | 57c | 31.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…6519backed Over | 45c | 31.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 327 | 52.9%173 W · 154 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Over | 48c | 28.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 609 | 45.8%279 W · 330 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 48c | 28.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 264 | 50%132 W · 132 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Over | 53c | 27.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 405 | 48.6%197 W · 208 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…8efcbacked Under | 53c | 25.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…d3c2backed Under | 51c | 24.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 49c | 22.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 326 | 54.6%178 W · 148 L | +22.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 46c | 22.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 135 | 48.1%65 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 165 | 55.2%91 W · 74 L | -12.1wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5957…6437backed Under | 53c | 19.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 34 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 223.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pistons (-0.5)Pistons won
- 1H Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Pistons won
- Ausar Thompson: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Daniss Jenkins: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Daniss Jenkins: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Donte DiVincenzo: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Duncan Robinson: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Duncan Robinson: Rebounds O/U 2.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Points O/U 23.5No won
- Jalen Duren: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- Julius Randle: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Pistons vs. TimberwolvesPistons won
- Pistons vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Timberwolves: 1H O/U 115.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 200.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 213.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 220.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 221.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 222.5Under won
- Pistons vs. Timberwolves: O/U 224.5Under won
- Spread: Pistons (-4.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-5.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-6.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Pistons (-8.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-1.5)Pistons won
- Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5)Pistons won
- Tobias Harris: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Tobias Harris: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Tobias Harris: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.