TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof Vici Gaming, PARIVISION
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$345,525
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$425,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $345,525 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 230 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x79ae…9a4abacked Vici Gaming28c24,774$6,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,818.5723435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked PARIVISION79c21,000$16,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,469.9928159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked PARIVISION77c17,082$13,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,945.683647.2%17 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Vici Gaming22c16,249$3,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,592.3819847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Vici Gaming23c14,933$3,374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,374.2415951.6%82 W · 77 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Vici Gaming25c10,198$2,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,509.7571143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed PARIVISION77c9,619$7,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,212.3712259.8%73 W · 49 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Vici Gaming20c9,483$1,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,887.6677941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked PARIVISION77c9,470$7,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,178.113960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Vici Gaming25c8,280$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0461,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed PARIVISION75c7,776$5,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.0256955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Vici Gaming17c7,088$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,239.0869644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf201…527ebacked PARIVISION75c7,000$5,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,731.2532549.8%162 W · 163 L+23.9wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Vici Gaming20c6,605$1,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.4239343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Vici Gaming28c5,947$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,645.1896357.3%552 W · 411 L+48.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed PARIVISION78c5,908$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,307.6135062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc9e7…56d8backed PARIVISION77c4,425$3,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,032.121457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Vici Gaming23c4,425$1,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,017.739636.5%35 W · 61 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Vici Gaming23c4,348$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00031936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Vici Gaming23c4,000$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.129348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed PARIVISION77c3,862$2,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.3520156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed PARIVISION76c3,170$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.2936248.6%176 W · 186 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked PARIVISION72c3,115$2,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.7932548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Vici Gaming21c3,030$632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631.6465625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed Vici Gaming1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30712.8%2 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Vici Gaming23c2,647$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609.8424153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked PARIVISION77c2,600$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5985964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7df4…153cbacked Vici Gaming23c2,566$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.185238.5%20 W · 32 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-21.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8a5…26a1backed PARIVISION77c2,563$1,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.8511154.1%60 W · 51 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-7.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x758f…dfb7backed PARIVISION79c2,528$1,997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.434667.9%235 W · 111 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Vici Gaming20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50081029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x96d7…3a17backed PARIVISION78c2,450$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543.425438.9%21 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed PARIVISION77c2,434$1,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.8310075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed PARIVISION77c2,299$1,773 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.7731248.4%151 W · 161 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed Vici Gaming26c2,216$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.0928044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed PARIVISION79c2,139$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.0147450.8%241 W · 233 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Vici Gaming19c2,081$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.365647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1cb…2345backed Vici Gaming22c2,018$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.9625935.5%92 W · 167 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d01…27cbbacked PARIVISION79c2,000$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4306744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a57…7b0abacked PARIVISION77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4608657%49 W · 37 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed Vici Gaming23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46027153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed Vici Gaming1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5020…36fcbacked PARIVISION78c1,956$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.23580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed PARIVISION77c1,890$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.814744.2%65 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Vici Gaming19c1,872$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.7745139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Vici Gaming15c1,844$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.5494442.3%399 W · 545 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bd9…56cfbacked Vici Gaming6c1,839$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-62.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Vici Gaming25c1,831$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.4750832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a3f…4333backed Vici Gaming23c1,739$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.689350.5%47 W · 46 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION75c1,676$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.679559.4%472 W · 323 L+3.7wins0.00per pick59cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed Vici Gaming24c1,577$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.4545352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…5667backed Vici Gaming18c1,569$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2902920.7%6 W · 23 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-60.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked PARIVISION76c1,568$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.9579159.4%470 W · 321 L+18.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Vici Gaming22c1,558$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.7635637.1%132 W · 224 L-9.6wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb635…bef0backed Vici Gaming21c1,525$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.3330336.6%111 W · 192 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-20.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed PARIVISION75c1,500$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37518143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Vici Gaming22c1,497$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33022340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd03b…184cbacked PARIVISION75c1,445$1,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.353562.9%22 W · 13 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION70c1,437$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.611,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Vici Gaming22c1,422$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.8435951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed PARIVISION80c1,394$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.351,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ae1…befbbacked Vici Gaming22c1,301$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.5230155.5%167 W · 134 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Vici Gaming23c1,250$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.541351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Vici Gaming19c1,250$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.651,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION78c1,100$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24256852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14c…23a1backed Vici Gaming21c1,037$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.7735151.3%180 W · 171 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked PARIVISION78c1,015$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.051,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Vici Gaming19c1,014$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.141,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e89…af95backed PARIVISION70c1,008$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.3914943.6%65 W · 84 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Vici Gaming19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1901,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf27…026fbacked PARIVISION76c1,000$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24065863.1%415 W · 243 L+17.5wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked PARIVISION68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32044149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b4d…5f4abacked Vici Gaming23c1,000$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230650%3 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+48.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Vici Gaming3c995.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.466132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf597…efeebacked Vici Gaming9c994.11$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.1wins0.00per pick24cpaid-29.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Vici Gaming19c988.05$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.731,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x65fe…c200backed Vici Gaming29c976.37$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.156564.6%42 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked Vici Gaming15c929.15$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.4125752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Vici Gaming21c924.55$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.5147046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Vici Gaming17c900$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15051544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed Vici Gaming17c900$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7596245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked PARIVISION74c875.43$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.631,15147.8%550 W · 601 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Vici Gaming18c868.66$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.3668649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Vici Gaming22c843.44$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.1792846.2%429 W · 499 L-16.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed PARIVISION71c842.87$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.8711551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c13…71a1backed Vici Gaming32c792.98$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.614540%18 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed PARIVISION75c791.42$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.851040%4 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa194…d4bebacked Vici Gaming17c749.99$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-40%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5b1…1b71backed Vici Gaming26c741.35$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.756741.8%28 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ef…1ac6backed PARIVISION78c705.13$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.1347660.7%289 W · 187 L-0.2wins0.00per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked PARIVISION76c700$532 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16827060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdf7c…4c16backed Vici Gaming16c656.63$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0612136.4%44 W · 77 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a2b…9e83backed PARIVISION77c649.08$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.2918446.7%86 W · 98 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed PARIVISION78c641$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.0214557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Vici Gaming25c613.86$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.4789440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked Vici Gaming23c605$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.156744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6478…c969backed Vici Gaming21c601$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.212040%8 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-39.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Vici Gaming22c599.97$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.991,24744.4%554 W · 693 L+17.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed PARIVISION80c576.11$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2217757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9d…de16backed PARIVISION70c526$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.88965.2%58 W · 31 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.