Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x120d9afb9355990ec53542051efec65490696449217767beecb5e8a9d52af6c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 37c | 1,869$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.7 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 29c | 1,472$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.67 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…3920backed Yes | 48c | 1,247$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.53 | 78 | 32.1%25 W · 53 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 28c | 884.31$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.11 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 41c | 638.41$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 489.61$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.62 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 30c | 442.92$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.67 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 47c | 408.12$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.78 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 63c | 391.94$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 62c | 381.57$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.16 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 346$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 60c | 338$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 64c | 295.4$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…2f7fbacked Yes | 4c | 266.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 61c | 234.07$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 31c | 233.3$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 231.52$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 57c | 230$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 24c | 224.89$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…796fbacked Yes | 48c | 208.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 57c | 194$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.74 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 58c | 188.58$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.14 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 44c | 182.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 179.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 57c | 177.62$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 64c | 170.28$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.07 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 63c | 164.84$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 72c | 163.52$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 12c | 161.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 69c | 152.78$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.92 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 62c | 151$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.89 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 63c | 145.28$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 139$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 62c | 138.38$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 38c | 134.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 24c | 134.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 69c | 123.55$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 25c | 123.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 66c | 122.17$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 35c | 120$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 29c | 111.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 60c | 109.55$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 60c | 105.98$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.63 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 48c | 103.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.64 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…fcb8backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 113 | 43.4%49 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 37c | 99.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc64…37f0backed Yes | 42c | 96.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 92.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 62c | 91.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 68c | 90.28$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 23c | 90.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 68c | 89.55$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 31c | 88.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9819…fe16backed Yes | 39c | 85.31$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 21c | 82.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 80.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.14 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.16 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 55c | 78.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed Yes | 29c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…1a53backed Yes | 40c | 76.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.44 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +7.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 75.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 70.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 22c | 70.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 70.13$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 62c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 35c | 69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b60…558dbacked No | 63c | 67.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.72 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 57c | 61.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 67c | 60.36$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 35c | 60.33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 34c | 60.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc969…0377backed Yes | 28c | 59.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 85 | 12.9%11 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 58.57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 56c | 58.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 71c | 56.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.02 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 55.61$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 41c | 55.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 50.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…953fbacked Yes | 37c | 50.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…51adbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 39cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf49…2486backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 56c | 49.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee5…ec3dbacked No | 67c | 45.95$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked Yes | 37c | 44.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 24c | 44.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 31c | 42.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 81°F or below on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.