MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1287d0fdb6ef73b308ca9420a02d132c4ec4fca0808485c920cb7867b7daef0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,654
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,841
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,654 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 46c | 44,444$20,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,444.22 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 27,379$14,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,610.28 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 9,514$4,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,871 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 8,034$4,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,893.82 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7f…7b8abacked Under | 52c | 6,720$3,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,494.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 54c | 4,535$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.4 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f03…766dbacked Over | 60c | 3,308$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.89 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 3,109$1,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,436.59 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 2,771$1,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,351.78 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Under | 52c | 2,615$1,360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,360 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1c…82c6backed Over | 51c | 1,929$984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$944.97 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 1,920$893 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$893.3 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 1,805$921 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920.77 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 619 | 47.7%295 W · 324 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 48c | 1,500$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 49c | 1,162$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.33 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b1…e2e8backed Under | 43c | 942.85$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.3 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 47c | 910$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.8 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ae…395cbacked Under | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba62…3e29backed Under | 42c | 721.35$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 221 | 49.3%109 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 48c | 585$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.8 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 59c | 389.49$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.69 | 96 | 55.2%53 W · 43 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Under | 52c | 324.94$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.44 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Under | 49c | 324.92$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.96 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 48c | 304.41$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.29 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 1,168 | 49%572 W · 596 L | +17.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 45c | 275.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.19 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed Under | 52c | 232.99$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.16 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 207.56$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 49c | 199.99$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Under | 51c | 198$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 40c | 190.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fff…5495backed Over | 54c | 166.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.67 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.3wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Under | 48c | 147.77$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under | 48c | 147.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.18 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 48c | 145$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.4 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Under | 50c | 111.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.56 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 54c | 109.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.85 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 45c | 101.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.96 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6f…6572backed Over | 53c | 98.02$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.4 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x237f…e76ebacked Under | 52c | 97.9$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 172 | 55.8%96 W · 76 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8d…7688backed Under | 47c | 76.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 241 | 49%118 W · 123 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 60c | 75$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 52c | 62.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x313d…6f98backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 52c | 50.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Under | 41c | 42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb515…7e2bbacked Under | 47c | 39.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 51c | 39.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Under | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe733…f6c9backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a1…296fbacked Under | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0daf…17a9backed Under | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 145 | 59.3%86 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 58c | 29.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6540backed Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 48.6%72 W · 76 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…cc7cbacked Over | 52c | 28.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…e543backed Under | 49c | 26.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 146 | 43.8%64 W · 82 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 48c | 25.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…62fdbacked Under | 41c | 24.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…16c9backed Over | 54c | 23.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184c…a801backed Over | 52c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 59c | 21.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 20.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ca…2efbbacked Over | 52c | 20.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5Under won
- Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.