NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12ed642894b9f1249f7234a1eedc8a518f29fd2f3a7687984060e696ec0f5f78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,608
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,616
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,608 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Over | 51c | 5,859$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…3292backed Over | 52c | 4,327$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.93 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…9401backed Under | 48c | 4,139$1,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152.5 | 403 | 50.1%202 W · 201 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 48c | 3,143$1,499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,644.03 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 2,535$1,208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 10c | 2,383$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.93 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 2,222$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.66 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 2,222$1,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,177.66 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…44f1backed Under | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 254 | 52.8%134 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 53c | 2,081$1,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,102.89 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…31d0backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dca…6bdcbacked Over | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 48c | 1,061$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.72 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1748…a816backed Under | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 173 | 44.5%77 W · 96 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,012$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.04 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…0493backed Over | 51c | 781.49$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.56 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 47c | 471.55$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.92 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17b9…430dbacked Under | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 130 | 40%52 W · 78 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…102fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 172 | 50.6%87 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 48c | 193$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.36 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe05…b5a5backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 332 | 46.1%153 W · 179 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Under | 48c | 125$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb48f…d015backed Under | 47c | 114.9$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 47c | 113.38$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.09 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7180…bdbabacked Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 156 | 57.7%90 W · 66 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70df…bca8backed Over | 55c | 91.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 327 | 50.2%164 W · 163 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 46c | 64.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x110d…cd01backed Over | 52c | 46.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 345 | 56.2%194 W · 151 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd09…3264backed Over | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.23per pick | 53cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 54c | 32.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Suns won
- Thunder vs. SunsSuns won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.