NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 230.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2ac32cd651f963c4c236897e8d5605436ac1406e6c1123e606f0207673cf0397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,388
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,388 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 47c | 17,144$8,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,086.13 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 9,029$4,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,784.12 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 53c | 9,029$4,784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,784.1 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 8,778$4,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,300.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 48c | 6,502$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.18 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f85…1339backed Over | 51c | 5,385$2,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,746.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…883dbacked Under | 47c | 5,277$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,796.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 51c | 4,805$2,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,336.41 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3158…d469backed Over | 53c | 4,700$2,491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,491 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 49c | 2,042$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.58 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 48c | 1,755$842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.18 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 52c | 1,442$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc95…c60fbacked Under | 53c | 1,030$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.89 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…b5f6backed Over | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…2d1abacked Under | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 489 | 57.5%281 W · 208 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Over | 51c | 480$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.4 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 32c | 385$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.2 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 52c | 360$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.8 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Over | 53c | 222.64$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 185.19$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40b…175fbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 47c | 144.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.13 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3490backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 144 | 54.9%79 W · 65 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Under | 53c | 109.6$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.51 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d55…3ea8backed Over | 52c | 75.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf2…740bbacked Over | 53c | 49.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 180 | 40.6%73 W · 107 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Over | 53c | 44.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…abe9backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 273 | 59%161 W · 112 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 47c | 30.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 51c | 24.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…8ac4backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 230.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Suns won
- Thunder vs. SunsSuns won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.