NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07fdb422db43bdc93c266279abd7dfa0430e44b275587c055706a02f08b15125
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,016
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 44c | 3,147$1,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,749.79 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Over | 54c | 1,571$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.43 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 51c | 1,114$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568.14 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 943.92$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…4a30backed Over | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 767 | 46.4%356 W · 411 L | -16.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 3c | 796.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.88 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Under | 44c | 452.14$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.2 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 405$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.47 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 42c | 378.97$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.8 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 59c | 363.36$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e1…d80bbacked Over | 59c | 340$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.6 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 51c | 266.67$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…3ffebacked Over | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Over | 57c | 252.63$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8a…e426backed Over | 58c | 224.14$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7289…8d16backed Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 133 | 54.1%72 W · 61 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 154.62$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.84 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 47c | 126.75$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.33 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Over | 56c | 116.07$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 334 | 42.8%143 W · 191 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 37c | 106.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 59c | 105$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.85 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96ec…fcc4backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 272 | 47.8%130 W · 142 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…62d3backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47c5…d5dabacked Over | 53c | 94.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa7…2e1abacked Over | 57c | 85.14$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…da58backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 43c | 70.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0fd…5903backed Over | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb781…0adcbacked Over | 62c | 67.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 43c | 56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 37c | 55.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 1,132 | 17%192 W · 940 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Over | 62c | 53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.86 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x308f…e152backed Over | 58c | 52.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 136 | 52.9%72 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0f…1ecdbacked Over | 57c | 47.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.85 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 42c | 43.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Over | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Under | 43c | 36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.52 | 876 | 47.5%416 W · 460 L | +3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…5490backed Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 288 | 56.9%164 W · 124 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Under | 37c | 33.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e68…3215backed Over | 58c | 31.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2d…241bbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 49c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25e4…18e1backed Over | 60c | 23.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dc…790bbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a59…e94cbacked Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a5…5e47backed Over | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 226.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Suns won
- Thunder vs. SunsSuns won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.