NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7afa836ca7f4f8a1a51b83a239a29630609a5890cdf801bccb286ee421f8d78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,146
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 0c | 12,631$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 54c | 7,003$3,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,769.06 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 45c | 6,662$2,998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,664 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 38c | 1,980$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.6 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Under | 47c | 1,950$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.5 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 53c | 1,659$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.01 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 6c | 1,612$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.63 | 2,169 | 40.8%885 W · 1,284 L | -8.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 55c | 1,513$832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.96 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 56c | 1,359$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Over | 55c | 1,313$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$723.01 | 446 | 48%214 W · 232 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Over | 50c | 1,265$633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.5 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 1,202$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.87 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Over | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 157 | 56.7%89 W · 68 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 3c | 814.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 594.57$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.38 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 55c | 368.55$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.7 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 56c | 365$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.03 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 45c | 335$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.25 | 406 | 48%195 W · 211 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 51c | 311.1$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.66 | 139 | 51.1%71 W · 68 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 841 | 50.3%423 W · 418 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Over | 16c | 296.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Over | 14c | 230.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 1,096 | 40.9%448 W · 648 L | +34.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 51c | 182$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.82 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 45c | 178$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 44c | 172.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.7 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 45c | 167.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.43 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Over | 11c | 104.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130c…782cbacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 144 | 20.1%29 W · 115 L | -8.0wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5007…119dbacked Over | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Over | 57c | 87.24$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 29c | 87.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 56c | 81.89$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 50c | 81.76$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 56c | 80$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 57c | 61.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 46c | 55.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 59c | 49.83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 48.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Over | 49c | 30.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 127 | 27.6%35 W · 92 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Over | 52c | 30.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 48c | 30.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb15…f4f8backed Over | 53c | 28.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed Under | 52c | 27.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.04 | 506 | 48%243 W · 263 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 48c | 25.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 52c | 22.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 623 | 49.6%309 W · 314 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 227.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Suns won
- Thunder vs. SunsSuns won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.