NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c0b752d9a4de3a34d411fe046a7d92402c351e3c81116457ac222cdcf31c10b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $123,757
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $123,920
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $123,757 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cb…28adbacked Over | 51c | 88,102$45,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,000 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 49c | 58,824$28,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,000 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 24,795$12,217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,577.84 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 49c | 7,999$3,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,079.51 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 51c | 4,139$2,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,110.89 | 1,908 | 54.5%1,040 W · 868 L | +53.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 50c | 2,773$1,386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,386.4 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc63b…f88ebacked Over | 51c | 2,300$1,173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,173 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,808$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$929.32 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x253d…aa62backed Over | 50c | 1,620$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 583 | 47%274 W · 309 L | -12.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Over | 53c | 1,568$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 51c | 1,400$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.8 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 50c | 1,236$618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…3d50backed Under | 45c | 995$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.25 | 547 | 47.5%260 W · 287 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 977.45$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf341…b5f6backed Over | 51c | 953.65$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.36 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed Over | 50c | 737.6$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.8 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 680.84$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.37 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 463.37$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…9141backed Over | 51c | 292.86$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.36 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…883dbacked Under | 46c | 282.61$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf60…f8d5backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Over | 51c | 190$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 258 | 46.9%121 W · 137 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 48c | 105.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 245 | 56.3%138 W · 107 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Over | 56c | 88.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 516 | 51.2%264 W · 252 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…eb92backed Over | 51c | 87.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…5c69backed Under | 75c | 79$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62cc…f56fbacked Over | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x15ca…0a0dbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 126 | 48.4%61 W · 65 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb545…6e0abacked Over | 51c | 47.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 175 | 27.4%48 W · 127 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 43c | 45.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.96 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75c0…dfd2backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x117d…6542backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce49…4740backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 42.4%100 W · 136 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bc…a233backed Under | 49c | 39.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 69 | 53.6%37 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…6b9fbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -6.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -76.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xce65…6759backed Under | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -16.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -30%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 48c | 28.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 51c | 25.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd925…3ab5backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 229.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Suns won
- Thunder vs. SunsSuns won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.