NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa6508d19e65b5b39daee21b0ba2d2cd181612ed60fcb1cdca1ba93a4b0ea54aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,747
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,747 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 49c | 4,862$2,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,365.45 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 48c | 4,687$2,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.76 | 478 | 56.7%271 W · 207 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Under | 52c | 4,081$2,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,958.77 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…32c2backed Under | 52c | 3,915$2,036 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,879.38 | 415 | 53.3%221 W · 194 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…883dbacked Under | 51c | 2,108$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5077…4e7cbacked Under | 51c | 1,993$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.7 | 97 | 33%32 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Over | 49c | 1,950$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.5 | 303 | 51.8%157 W · 146 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 59c | 1,481$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.03 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 1,416$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.89 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89bd…3f72backed Under | 52c | 1,392$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.16 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Over | 45c | 1,178$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 213 | 55.9%119 W · 94 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…cbf2backed Over | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2e…5b64backed Under | 54c | 800$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74a8…df59backed Under | 56c | 433.32$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.66 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 49c | 381.63$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Over | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Suns won
- Thunder vs. SunsSuns won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.