NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Suns: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2db3b8275ebf7adc8f7b005eefa0f212940497483cf441cc7b40bd93b29e2a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,644
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 80c | 2,153$1,712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.36 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Suns | 24c | 1,943$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.85 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…1d7dbacked Suns | 15c | 1,930$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.95 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Thunder | 73c | 1,346$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.45 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.0wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Suns | 30c | 1,173$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.83 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Thunder | 80c | 569.18$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.5 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Suns | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 337 | 30.3%102 W · 235 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964f…ca58backed Thunder | 75c | 213.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Thunder | 73c | 132$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 430 | 52.3%225 W · 205 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Thunder | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 473 | 59.2%280 W · 193 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Suns | 27c | 127.06$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Suns | 25c | 106.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Suns | 24c | 81.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Suns won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Suns won
- Thunder vs. SunsSuns won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 111.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 112.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 226.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 227.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 228.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 229.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 230.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 231.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Suns: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.