TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

NBA Summer League: New York Knicks vs. Dallas Mavericks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dallas Mavericksof New York Knicks, Dallas Mavericks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$95,346
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$100,828

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $95,346 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x85bb…9adabacked New York Knicks54c26,367$14,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,185.36666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+99.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Dallas Mavericks50c20,060$10,030 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,029.926753.2%142 W · 125 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed New York Knicks50c20,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0005848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf28e…cab2backed Dallas Mavericks46c19,716$9,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,646.4156646.5%263 W · 303 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7120…7c4ebacked New York Knicks50c4,714$2,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,334.678923.6%21 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-34.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed New York Knicks44c3,824$1,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.194,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f03…766dbacked Dallas Mavericks58c3,443$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.574946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Dallas Mavericks59c3,021$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.276437.5%24 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-36.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dallas Mavericks64c2,915$1,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,052.218,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked New York Knicks48c2,317$1,116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,116.4393148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b8f…cca7backed New York Knicks41c2,295$942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.052236.4%8 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Dallas Mavericks49c2,209$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,135.7342842.5%182 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked New York Knicks60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20028056.8%159 W · 121 L+22.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+50.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Dallas Mavericks51c1,790$916 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$873.8410761.7%66 W · 41 L+8.4wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0df…3adbbacked Dallas Mavericks49c1,475$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$753.55250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked Dallas Mavericks59c1,399$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.6414357.3%82 W · 61 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Dallas Mavericks51c1,100$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5381,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Knicks41c999.99$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.9425651.2%131 W · 125 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Dallas Mavericks49c794.86$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.9757550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed Dallas Mavericks53c723$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.819548.2%94 W · 101 L+12.4wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Dallas Mavericks56c648.21$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.591675%12 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+95.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked New York Knicks46c644.32$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.6568838.5%265 W · 423 L-26.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed New York Knicks39c606.31$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.6622836.4%83 W · 145 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab4a…823abacked Dallas Mavericks57c583.72$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2511241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Dallas Mavericks51c539.95$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.751,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Dallas Mavericks54c524.64$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.9522753.3%121 W · 106 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+2.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x987e…8d7abacked New York Knicks59c505.06$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cb5…98f8backed New York Knicks54c499.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.86955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+25.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a40…f518backed Dallas Mavericks50c463.4$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.542429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.5wins-0.19per pick48cpaid-35.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x884a…2f2abacked Dallas Mavericks79c448.44$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.44771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…89bcbacked Dallas Mavericks48c433.6$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+43.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Dallas Mavericks56c424.29$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.691,56247.4%741 W · 821 L-6.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eb7…a3cdbacked Dallas Mavericks54c366.67$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.671250%6 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Dallas Mavericks57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8835650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x807f…9615backed Dallas Mavericks56c348.42$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.761560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+20.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c26…d474backed Dallas Mavericks30c333.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.773330.3%10 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Dallas Mavericks59c292.19$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.541752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Dallas Mavericks50c269.07$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5352150.9%265 W · 256 L+18.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Dallas Mavericks49c262.11$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.3836023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72db…1029backed Dallas Mavericks47c254.02$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.63757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+15.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Dallas Mavericks40c248.27$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.961,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked New York Knicks41c247$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.472,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Dallas Mavericks62c241.93$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.9364944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed New York Knicks46c240.08$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.773,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f16…553dbacked New York Knicks40c224.52$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9027145.4%123 W · 148 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x63df…63d1backed New York Knicks50c218.52$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106734.3%23 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaeb…9ec2backed Dallas Mavericks52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked New York Knicks50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-49.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf990…88bcbacked New York Knicks43c200$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$865143.1%22 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Dallas Mavericks60c189.8$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9925954.4%141 W · 118 L+34.1wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+68.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Dallas Mavericks45c179.07$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.171,31747.8%629 W · 688 L+15.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed New York Knicks38c175.83$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.822744.4%12 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked Dallas Mavericks57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.4431249.4%154 W · 158 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked New York Knicks40c169.63$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.856,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed New York Knicks40c167$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.7418445.7%84 W · 100 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd2…9014backed New York Knicks60c166.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10018147.5%86 W · 95 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…331cbacked New York Knicks54c155.76$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed New York Knicks41c142$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.171,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28f7…404dbacked New York Knicks51c140.05$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-55.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Dallas Mavericks59c133$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.698654.7%47 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed New York Knicks41c127.23$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1635546.5%165 W · 190 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Dallas Mavericks59c127.23$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1610757%61 W · 46 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43fe…26eebacked Dallas Mavericks31c120$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.84057.5%23 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+24.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Dallas Mavericks69c119.89$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.4111364.6%73 W · 40 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed New York Knicks43c112.72$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.1442853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0182…301cbacked New York Knicks50c112.19$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.054057.5%23 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8100…1d33backed New York Knicks45c111.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf202…9ea8backed Dallas Mavericks57c105.4$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.41050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x138d…97aebacked Dallas Mavericks56c100.02$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x372b…cbf5backed New York Knicks16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162425%6 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b2…1c67backed New York Knicks46c99.98$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.999353.8%50 W · 43 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Dallas Mavericks60c99.98$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.493348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Dallas Mavericks57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.071,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x85c3…700cbacked New York Knicks40c74.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.826636.4%24 W · 42 L-6.9wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Dallas Mavericks56c68.48$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.891241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Dallas Mavericks60c68.27$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2633356.2%187 W · 146 L+9.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed New York Knicks42c67.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3743958.8%258 W · 181 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Dallas Mavericks64c67$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.145076%38 W · 12 L+8.5wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+21.7%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Dallas Mavericks30c65$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.518140.3%73 W · 108 L+24.4wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+60.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xbaa5…3be4backed New York Knicks44c64.77$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f79…0307backed Dallas Mavericks48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.53737.8%14 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed New York Knicks49c57.91$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3459743.6%260 W · 337 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Dallas Mavericks53c56.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6324937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68aa…ea5ebacked New York Knicks55c54.55$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde8c…9433backed New York Knicks54c54.54$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.261546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick59cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d63…9075backed Dallas Mavericks72c52.49$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.881154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-21%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe011…159fbacked New York Knicks49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251625%4 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-30.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x12ee…0439backed New York Knicks51c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.52166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8969…2a77backed Dallas Mavericks51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.02771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9786…1e9abacked Dallas Mavericks53c47.17$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.171225%3 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed New York Knicks45c44.44$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,38954.9%762 W · 627 L+16.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc22a…a35cbacked Dallas Mavericks50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2016230.9%50 W · 112 L-9.3wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-8.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0a8d…7688backed Dallas Mavericks51c39.31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.261040%4 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-27.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc32…d582backed New York Knicks39c38.3$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…10d2backed New York Knicks43c37.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.173458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ef1…5acabacked Dallas Mavericks61c35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.656761.2%41 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa08b…413cbacked Dallas Mavericks57c34.94$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x273d…fb63backed New York Knicks52c34.54$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.81291.7%11 W · 1 L+4.0wins+0.33per pick59cpaid+65.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2361…c34ebacked Dallas Mavericks47c33.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.795100%5 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+70.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x999a…9a25backed Dallas Mavericks53c32.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.432781.5%22 W · 5 L+5.9wins+0.22per pick60cpaid+31.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.