Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1336725dd446659c6374d4b82b56a968443d392da70d4725c614f7e7f8fbac8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Spiritof Team Spirit, Team Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed Team Spirit | 34c | 14,378$4,899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,479.55 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Team Liquid | 66c | 10,629$7,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,015.36 | 711 | 43%306 W · 405 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Liquid | 66c | 1,569$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.17 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3657…6cd3backed Team Liquid | 65c | 999.99$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.99 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40db…ca8cbacked Team Liquid | 72c | 999$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.28 | 540 | 58.9%318 W · 222 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6033…8a83backed Team Spirit | 36c | 760.17$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.17 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed Team Liquid | 64c | 736.99$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.68 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc69b…2076backed Team Spirit | 28c | 728.91$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.47 | 188 | 44.7%84 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Liquid | 73c | 490$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.7 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7d…df55backed Team Liquid | 67c | 433$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Team Spirit | 36c | 428.83$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.55 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Team Liquid | 59c | 427.85$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.43 | 358 | 50.6%181 W · 177 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaf…2a03backed Team Liquid | 64c | 347.55$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Team Liquid | 66c | 330$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.8 | 121 | 48.8%59 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked Team Liquid | 68c | 311.53$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.84 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0f…3656backed Team Liquid | 67c | 306.19$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7093…a798backed Team Spirit | 34c | 294.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.83 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d3…42e4backed Team Spirit | 36c | 234.56$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.97 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Liquid | 40c | 216.72$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Team Spirit | 61c | 150.15$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 438 | 60.5%265 W · 173 L | +44.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc094…c8d4backed Team Liquid | 68c | 149.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e59…2a66backed Team Spirit | 58c | 142.26$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.75 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Team Liquid | 67c | 138.89$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.57 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Team Liquid | 66c | 124.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.41 | 421 | 46.6%196 W · 225 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aac…0e7abacked Team Liquid | 68c | 114.5$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Spirit | 33c | 113.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 325 | 48.9%159 W · 166 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…1c86backed Team Liquid | 45c | 100.22$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…fbccbacked Team Spirit | 33c | 99.53$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.53 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Team Spirit | 32c | 89.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.19 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Spirit | 58c | 88.53$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d86…ea87backed Team Spirit | 60c | 86.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed Team Spirit | 35c | 85.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 222 | 60.4%134 W · 88 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e41…5932backed Team Liquid | 40c | 81.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.7 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d8…f6b6backed Team Spirit | 34c | 77.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Team Liquid | 65c | 74.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9144…a412backed Team Liquid | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Team Spirit | 32c | 60.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 87 | 28.7%25 W · 62 L | -8.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Spirit | 31c | 59.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Team Spirit | 32c | 52.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.63 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Team Spirit | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 159 | 45.9%73 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Team Liquid | 68c | 43.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f0…6e95backed Team Spirit | 35c | 40.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.22 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +92.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Team Liquid | 65c | 38.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb3…ca8bbacked Team Spirit | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2805…a007backed Team Liquid | 75c | 34.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0302…a5a6backed Team Liquid | 68c | 34.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f96…9ecebacked Team Liquid | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Team Liquid | 67c | 28.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed Team Liquid | 67c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International PlayoffsTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 2 WinnerTeam Spirit won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.